Match Info

Super Lig - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu (Istanbul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 7
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Ecuador	ESPN 7
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	Selekt, Sport 1
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Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kosovo	ART Sport 5
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	SportKlub 6
Thailand	beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 7


	Fenerbahçe		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.75	6	Watch
	1.46	4.5	6.25
	1.42	4.46	6.89	Watch
	1.46	4.68	7.47
	1.41	4.73	7.56
	1.44	4.2	6.5
	1.49	4.52	7.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.46)	4.55 ↑ (4.42)	6.85 ↑ (6.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
65.4%

Draw
20.8%

Samsunspor
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

21.4%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

20.8%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.7%	5.3%	0%

Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (18 of 19 users predict this - 94.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fenerbahçe will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ederson (G) 18. Muldur M. 24. Oosterwolde J. (C) 22. Mercan L. 20. Musaba A. 6. Guendouzi M. 17. Kante N. 3. Brown A. 21. Asensio M. 26. Cherif S. 9. Akturkoglu K.	1. Kocuk O. (G) 55. Cift Y. E. 37. Satka L. 4. Van Drongelen R. 17. Tomasson L. 5. Yuksel C. 29. Makoumbou A. 10. Ntcham O. (C) 2. Mendes J. 9. Marius 21. Holse C.
Substitutes
70. Aydin O. 13. Cetin T. (G) 14. Demir Y. E. 54. Ekici A. 7. Fred 34. Gunok M. (G) 45. Nene D. 37. Skriniar M. 67. Uregen K. 5. Yuksek I.	23. Albak E. 24. Borevkovic T. 70. Coulibaly T. 15. Diabbate A. B. 71. Egribayat I. (G) 28. Gonul S. 20. Kayan Y. 19. Ndiaye C. 7. Tavsan E. 48. Toruz E. B. (G)
Coaches
Tedesco D.	Fink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Marius ⚽, Holse C. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Guendouzi M. ⚽, Musaba A. (A),
16', Cift Y. E. 🟨,
23', 1 - 2, Marius ⚽, Tomasson L. (A),
44', Mendes J. 🟨,
45+3', Ederson 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Cift Y. E. ↓, Borevkovic T. ↑,
46', Mendes J. ↓, Tavsan E. ↑,
51', Borevkovic T. 🟨,
61', Musaba A. ↓, Yuksek I. ↑,
62', Muldur M. ↓, Demir Y. E. ↑,
62', Van Drongelen R. 🟨,
75', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
75', Kante N. ↓, Fred ↑,
79', Marius ↓, Ndiaye C. ↑,
84', Ntcham O. ↓, Kayan Y. ↑,
89', Yuksel C. ↓, Diabbate A. B. ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Nene D. ⚽, Asensio M. (A),
90+1', Tedesco D. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 2, Cherif S. ⚽, Asensio M. (A),
90+6', Makoumbou A. 🟨,
90+6', Guendouzi M. 🟨,
90+6', Kocuk O. 🟨,
90+7', Tedesco D. 🟨,
90+11', Asensio M. ↓, Aydin O. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fenerbahçe won 1.

Fenerbahçe has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Samsunspor is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Samsunspor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fenerbahçe is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Alvarez E. (Ankle Injury) Soyuncu C. (Muscle Injury) Talisca (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Samsunspor: Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Kilinc E. (Inactive) Sousa A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Fenerbahçe: Semedo N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Samsunspor: Assoumou J. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Fenerbahçe won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Fenerbahçe won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 1.5:0.3).

Outrights of Turkish Super League for now

Fenerbahce: 27.97% Samsunspor: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Fenerbahce	6	3	1	2	16:6	10	10
16	Samsunspor	6	1	1	4	6:12	-6	4

Last Results with these Odds

Fenerbahçe - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 64.72%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Cup
04.03.26	Gaziantep - Fenerbahçe	0:4 ✺
Turkish Super League
01.03.26	Antalyaspor - Fenerbahçe	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
23.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Kasımpaşa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WTWTL
- Samsunspor
Turkish Cup
05.03.26	Antalyaspor - Samsunspor	0:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
01.03.26	Samsunspor - Gaziantep	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Samsunspor - Shkendija Tetovo	4:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
22.02.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Samsunspor	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Shkendija Tetovo - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super Cup
06.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	2:0
Turkish Super League
05.10.25	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	0:0
16.03.25	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	0:0
20.10.24	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	2:2
21.01.24	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	1:1
21.08.23	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	0:2
Turkish Cup
21.03.12	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	3:0

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