Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Nou Estadi de Tarragona (Tarragona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Gimnástic de Tarragona		Eldense

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.45
	2.72	2.98	2.62
	2.79	3.11	2.6
	1.00	14.23	25.00	Watch
	2.76	3.15	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.64)	5.29 ↑ (3.13)	7.05 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnástic de Tarragona
56%

Draw
25.2%

Eldense
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

29.1%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

29.1%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnástic de Tarragona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gimnástic de Tarragona's performance.

Eldense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Eldense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimnástic de Tarragona than the current prediction. (-21.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gimnástic de Tarragona that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eldense than the current prediction. (+17.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Eldense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Gimnástic de Tarragona - Eldense Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Gimnàstic will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rebollo D. (G) 4. Alba D. 22. Alvaro Garcia 5. Morgado C. 20. Santos S. 8. Montalvo M. 14. Sanz O. (C) 12. Almpanis C. 10. Jardi J. 23. Baselga M. 9. Omoigui C.	1. Vila R. (G) 3. Smand F. 5. Gaixas A. 4. Dumic D. (C) 21. Ruiz D. 18. Macho G. 8. Bustillo M. 19. Ibarrondo A. 10. Fidel 7. Quintana Nacho 9. Dioni
Substitutes
31. Alves A. . Cabezas 26. Esteves E. (G) 19. Fuentes J. 13. Fuidias T. (G) 11. Jimenez A. 7. Junca D. 18. Kaptoum W. 17. Martinez P. 6. Prendes M. 21. Pujol E. 15. Torres F.	11. Bellari H. 15. Billups B. 17. Clemente J. 20. Ibanez R. 26. Jimenez C. 12. Molina M. 22. Nunez R. 2. Serradell A. G. 13. Valencia P. (G) 23. Vallejo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Sanz O. 🟨,
23', Montalvo M. 🟨,
37', Macho G. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
58', Bustillo M. 🟨,
60', Alvaro Garcia ↓, Prendes M. ↑,
60', Montalvo M. ↓, Martinez P. ↑,
60', Sanz O. ↓, Kaptoum W. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Baselga M. ⚽,
69', 2 - 0, Fuentes J. ⚽,
74', 3 - 0, Jardi J. ⚽,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gimnàstic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gimnàstic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Gimnástic de Tarragona - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 34.4%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Eldense - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 36.54%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnástic de Tarragona
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.09.25	CE Europa - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:3 ✺
05.09.25	Betis B - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:2 ✺
29.08.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Algeciras	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	LHospitalet - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTWW
- CD Eldense
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.09.25	Eldense - Sevilla B	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Teruel - Eldense	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Eldense - Villarreal B	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Sabadell - Eldense	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
22.08.25	Cartagena - Eldense	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
26.02.23	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Eldense	0:4
02.10.22	Eldense - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
19.04.15	Eldense - Gimnástic de Tarragona	3:2
30.11.14	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Eldense	2:0

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