Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 32

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Nou Estadi de Tarragona (Tarragona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Gimnástic de Tarragona		Real Murcia

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.9	2.8
	2.52	3	2.78
	2.5	2.99	2.94
	2.51	3.05	2.91	Watch
	2.45	2.8	2.7
	2.54	3.01	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.47)	2.96 ↓ (2.99)	2.84 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnástic de Tarragona
36.7%

Draw
31%

Real Murcia
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

31%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnástic de Tarragona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Real Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnástic de Tarragona than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Gimnástic de Tarragona - Real Murcia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rebollo D. (G) 2. Camus S. 21. Pujol E. 14. Sanz O. (C) 16. Moi 11. Jimenez A. 6. Prendes M. 10. Jardi J. 24. Gelardo A. 7. Abdallah K. 23. Baselga M.	1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 3. Romero C. 4. Garcia H. J. 15. Gil O. 2. Mier J. 9. Benito P. A. P. 18. Vicente D. 12. Joao Pedro Palmberg 34. Sanchez J. G. 19. Jorquera Romero J. 23. Bosilj D.
Substitutes
5. Alcala P. 12. Almpanis C. 26. Esteves E. (G) 19. Fuentes J. 13. Fuidias T. (G) 17. Martinez P. 8. Montalvo M. 9. Omoigui C. 35. Pavon M. 22. Perez H. 36. Pozo T. 29. Subirats O.	16. Antonio David 11. Bustos A. 21. Djanbou S. 10. Gomez I. 22. Juan Carlos 14. Leon P. 7. Moyita S. 17. Narro V. 8. Ortuno J. 13. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 27. Yoldi A. 20. Zenitagoia E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Baselga M. ⚽,
16', Sanz O. 🟨,
22', Jimenez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sanchez J. G. ↓, Moyita S. ↑,
48', Moi 🟨,
64', Baselga M. ↓, Omoigui C. ↑,
64', Abdallah K. ↓, Martinez P. ↑,
64', Joao Pedro Palmberg ↓, Ortuno J. ↑,
64', Mier J. ↓, Zenitagoia E. ↑,
64', Bosilj D. ↓, Narro V. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Ortuno J. ⚽,
74', Gelardo A. ↓, Montalvo M. ↑,
79', Gil O. 🟨,
79', Gil O. ↓, Gomez I. ↑,
88', Jardi J. ↓, Fuentes J. ↑,
90', Fuentes J. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 1, Garcia H. J. (Own goal),
90+3', Benito P. A. P. 🟨,
90+7', Martinez P. 🟨,
90+7', Romero C. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 15 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gimnàstic won 2.

Gimnàstic is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Murcia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Gimnàstic won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Gimnàstic won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Murcia	6	4	0	2	10:7	3	12
14	Gimnastic	6	2	1	3	7:9	-2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Gimnástic de Tarragona - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.59%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Real Murcia - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 31.36%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnástic de Tarragona
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
04.04.26	Teruel - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Juventud de Torremolinos	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Algeciras - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:0 ✺
13.03.26	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Sabadell	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Eldense - Gimnástic de Tarragona	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLTL
- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
05.04.26	Real Murcia - Atlético Madrid B	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Sevilla B - Real Murcia	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Real Murcia - Tarazona	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Hércules - Real Murcia	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Real Murcia - Marbella	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
08.11.25	Real Murcia - Gimnástic de Tarragona	3:2
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.06.25	Real Murcia - Gimnástic de Tarragona	0:1
31.05.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Real Murcia	1:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
11.02.23	Real Murcia - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:0
09.10.22	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Real Murcia	3:2
Spanish LaLiga2
20.05.12	Real Murcia - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:2

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