Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 23

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Enrique Roca (Murcia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Murcia		Marbella

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.4	5
	1.68	3.4	4.95
	1.69	3.45	5.67
	1.71	3.51	5.03	Watch
	1.62	3.1	5
	1.68	3.54	5.2
	1.7	3.1	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.76)	3.36 ↑ (3.13)	5.12 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
54.8%

Draw
27.3%

Marbella
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

29.7%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

25.6%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Marbella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Murcia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marbella than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Real Murcia - Marbella Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Murcia will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Murcia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 18. Vicente D. 4. Garcia H. J. 34. Sanchez J. G. 2. Mier J. 27. Yoldi A. 15. Gil O. 17. Narro V. 22. Juan Carlos 19. Jorquera Romero J. 8. Ortuno J.	1. Garcia M. (G) 2. Alvarez J. 23. Escassi A. 4. Castellano A. 3. Martinez A. 20. Cambra J. 16. Ruiz A. 8. Eugeni 19. Ohemeng E. 9. Sanchez V. 24. Selma D.
Substitutes
16. Antonio David 23. Bosilj D. 10. Gomez I. 6. Gonzalez A. 14. Leon P. 40. Meca A. 13. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 3. Romero C. 20. Zenitagoia E.	17. Alexiel 15. Gabri 10. Gil A. 30. Guzman T. 26. Navarro C. 31. Pineda D. 29. Vasile C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Gil O. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Gil O. 🟨,
70', 1 - 1, Selma D. ⚽,
86', 🟨,
87', 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Marbella may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Murcia is considered a favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Murcia won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 1:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Murcia	6	4	0	2	10:7	3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
06.03.26	Real Murcia - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Villarreal B - Real Murcia	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Real Murcia - Cartagena	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Alcorcón - Real Murcia	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Teruel - Real Murcia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTLLT
- Marbella FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
07.03.26	Marbella - CE Europa	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	Atlético Sanluqueño - Marbella	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Marbella - Algeciras	4:1 ✺
15.02.26	Cartagena - Marbella	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Marbella - Antequera	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
01.09.25	Marbella - Real Murcia	2:1
09.02.25	Marbella - Real Murcia	1:4
20.10.24	Real Murcia - Marbella	0:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
10.11.19	Real Murcia - Marbella	1:1
03.03.19	Real Murcia - Marbella	1:1
14.10.18	Marbella - Real Murcia	0:0
04.03.18	Marbella - Real Murcia	1:1

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