Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 31

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Enrique Roca (Murcia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Real Murcia		Atlético Madrid B

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	2.8
	2.32	3	3.05
	2.38	3.17	2.91
	2.12	3.23	3.48	Watch
	2.3	2.9	2.88
	2.35	3.02	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.24)	3.05 ↑ (2.9)	3.01 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
39.6%

Draw
30%

Atlético Madrid B
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

31.2%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

33.2%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Atlético Madrid B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid B than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Real Murcia - Atlético Madrid B Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gazzaniga G. (C) 9. Benito P. A. P. 23. Bosilj D. 4. Garcia H. J. 15. Gil O. 12. Joao Pedro Palmberg 19. Jorquera Romero J. 2. Mier J. 3. Romero C. 34. Sanchez J. G. 18. Vicente D.	1. de Luis M. (G) 20. Barboza M. 10. Belaid R. 18. Bellotti M. 32. Bonar J. 9. Llorente R. 7. Luque I. 5. Martinez D. 47. Morcillo J. 23. Ortiz A. 40. Puric A.
Substitutes
27. Alonso 16. Antonio David 11. Bustos A. 21. Djanbou S. 22. Juan Carlos 14. Leon P. 7. Moyita S. 17. Narro V. 8. Ortuno J. 13. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 20. Zenitagoia E.	8. Castillo J. 19. Corral A. 31. Coulibaly I. (G) 30. Cubo M. 28. Hueso R. 11. Koke 17. Monserrate J. 24. Najera R. 2. Parriego M. 21. Sits D. 12. Spina G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Gil O. ⚽,
33', Gil O. ↓, Moyita S. ↑,
33', Garcia H. J. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Jorquera Romero J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Morcillo J. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
46', Belaid R. ↓, Cubo M. ↑,
58', 2 - 1, Ortiz A. ⚽,
59', Barboza M. 🟨,
69', Barboza M. ↓, Corral A. ↑,
70', Bellotti M. 🟨,
77', Sanchez J. G. 🟨,
80', Luque I. ↓, Koke ↑,
80', Bellotti M. ↓, Monserrate J. ↑,
83', Bosilj D. ↓, Alonso ↑,
83', Jorquera Romero J. ↓, Narro V. ↑,
83', Benito P. A. P. ↓, Ortuno J. ↑,
86', Gomez I. 🟨,
90+7', Puric A. 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,
90+7', Gazzaniga G. 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

Murcia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Madrid B is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético Madrid B may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Murcia might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Murcia won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Murcia	6	4	0	2	10:7	3	12
11	Atl. Madrid B	6	2	2	2	11:8	3	8

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Madrid B - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 28.34%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
29.03.26	Sevilla B - Real Murcia	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Real Murcia - Tarazona	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Hércules - Real Murcia	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Real Murcia - Marbella	1:1 ✺
06.03.26	Real Murcia - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWLTL
- Atlético Madrid B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
29.03.26	Atlético Madrid B - Antequera	3:2 ✺
21.03.26	Atlético Madrid B - Cartagena	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Tarazona - Atlético Madrid B	1:4 ✺
08.03.26	Atlético Madrid B - Hércules	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Sevilla B - Atlético Madrid B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
14.09.25	Atlético Madrid B - Real Murcia	1:1
07.03.25	Atlético Madrid B - Real Murcia	2:1
09.11.24	Real Murcia - Atlético Madrid B	1:1
25.05.24	Atlético Madrid B - Real Murcia	3:1
02.01.24	Real Murcia - Atlético Madrid B	1:1

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