Match Info

Torneo Federal - Winners stage - Round 1

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Jose Maria Paz (Chivilcoy)


	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy		Sportivo Belgrano

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.70	3.40
	2.00	2.85	3.75
	2.21	2.64	3.57
	2.61	2.44	3.54	Watch
	2.18	2.60	3.50
	2.20	2.66	3.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (1.82)	2.65 ↓ (3)	3.58 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy
40.6%

Draw
34.1%

Sportivo Belgrano
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

30%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

29.5%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy's form might have worsened.

Sportivo Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Belgrano than the current prediction. (-5%)

Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ilchischen N. (G) 7. Almada L. 3. D'Amelio X. 9. Fernandez V. 4. Fiol F. 2. Flores F. 5. Martinez G. 11. Millan J. 8. Pavone N. 6. Robatto V. 10. Visser B.	1. Martina L. (G) 11. Bono J. 5. Caviglia J. 8. Churchi S. 6. Ferrero G. 4. Ferreyra L. (C) 7. Lehmann A. 9. Mercado E. 2. Paiz J. 3. Pennesi T. 10. Sagristani M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', 🟨,
38', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', 🟨,
50', 🟨,
72', 🟨,
76', 🟨,
86', Caviglia J. 🟥,
90', 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Gimnasia Chivilcoy may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gimnasia Chivilcoy might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gimnasia Chivilcoy won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gimnasia Chivilcoy won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy
Argentinian Torneo Federal
25.07.26	Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:2 ✺
12.07.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay	0:0 ✺
05.07.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - El Linqueño	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	9 de Julio - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:1 ✺
20.06.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Atlético Escobar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTWLW
- Sportivo Belgrano
Argentinian Torneo Federal
24.07.26	Sportivo Belgrano - Atlético Escobar	2:2 ✺
12.07.26	Sportivo Las Parejas - Sportivo Belgrano	0:0 ✺
05.07.26	Sportivo Belgrano - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:1 ✺
28.06.26	El Linqueño - Sportivo Belgrano	1:1 ✺
20.06.26	Douglas Haig - Sportivo Belgrano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
31.05.26	Sportivo Belgrano - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	1:0
29.03.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	0:0
14.09.25	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	3:0
15.06.25	Sportivo Belgrano - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	0:0
13.04.25	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	2:1

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