Match Info

Torneo Federal - Round 16

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Oscar C. Boero (San Francisco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Sportivo Belgrano		Independiente Chivilcoy

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.50	7.25
	1.55	3.40	6.00	Watch
	1.44	3.59	8.01
	1.61	3.31	6.80	Watch
	1.40	3.55	7.90
	1.42	3.60	8.50
	1.46	3.45	7.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.55)	3.49 ↑ (3.4)	7.38 ↑ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Belgrano
61.6%

Draw
26.1%

Independiente Chivilcoy
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.3%

26.6%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

25.2%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Independiente Chivilcoy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

The ML Model estimate for Sportivo Belgrano aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Chivilcoy than the current prediction. (+2%)

Sportivo Belgrano - Independiente Chivilcoy Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martina L. (G) 8. Churchi S. 4. Ferreyra L. 3. Gancedo M. 5. Gimenez J. 7. Lehmann A. 9. Lesman G. 11. Mercado E. 2. Paiz J. 6. Pennesi T. 10. Sagristani M.	1. Cordero M. (G) 3. Borgognoni G. 5. Cisnero L. 10. Funes F. 8. Hernandez Castro T. J. 4. Mast T. 7. Ramirez U. 11. Retamozo L. 9. Sanhueza 6. Torres D. 2. Vera A.
Substitutes
13. Alessi L. 20. Arostegui J. I. 18. Bono M. 12. Carena J. (G) 15. Contreras P. 17. Forlin M. 16. Franceschi E. 19. Pastorelli A. 14. Vidal J.	13. Acuna L. 20. Berrutti B. 12. Burello A. (G) 14. Caceres E. 16. Gimenez 15. Herrera A. 18. Mendoza D. 17. Mercado L. 19. Perez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Lesman G. ⚽,
8', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
77', Funes F. 🟥,
84', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Winners stage: ) and 7 in the zone Torneo Federal (Losers stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Belgrano won 4.

Recent performances by Sportivo Belgrano have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ind Chivilcoy's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sportivo Belgrano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sportivo Belgrano is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Belgrano won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:8. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Belgrano won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Belgrano
Argentinian Torneo Federal
28.06.26	El Linqueño - Sportivo Belgrano	1:1 ✺
20.06.26	Douglas Haig - Sportivo Belgrano	0:0 ✺
15.06.26	Sportivo Belgrano - Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo	1:0 ✺
07.06.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay - Sportivo Belgrano	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Sportivo Belgrano - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TTWLW
- Independiente Chivilcoy
Argentinian Torneo Federal
28.06.26	Independiente Chivilcoy - Douglas Haig	0:4 ✺
21.06.26	Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo - Independiente Chivilcoy	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Independiente Chivilcoy - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay	0:0 ✺
07.06.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Independiente Chivilcoy	0:0 ✺
31.05.26	Independiente Chivilcoy - 9 de Julio	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
02.05.26	Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	0:3
16.08.25	Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	2:3
11.07.25	Sportivo Belgrano - Independiente Chivilcoy	0:0
10.05.25	Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	1:2
23.06.24	Sportivo Belgrano - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:0
27.04.24	Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	0:2
18.09.23	Sportivo Belgrano - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:0

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