Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH - ROUND 21

Date: 25 November 2023, Saturday


	Gloucester City		Spennymoor Town

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.3	2.1
	2.9	3.2	2.1
	3	3.4	2.2
	3.11	3.39	2.27
	3.11	3.39	2.27
	3.1	3.4	2
	3.04	3.4	2.18
	3.05	3.35	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↓ (3.19)	3.35 ↓ (3.46)	2.16 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gloucester City
30.2%

Draw
27.3%

Spennymoor Town
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

26.3%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

25.3%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gloucester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Spennymoor Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gloucester City than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spennymoor Town than the current prediction. (+1%)

Gloucester City - Spennymoor Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gloucester won 2.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Spennymoor could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Spennymoor will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Gloucester won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Gloucester won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gloucester City
English FA Trophy
18.11.23	Gloucester City - Braintree Town	3:0 ✺
English National League North
14.11.23	Brackley Town - Gloucester City	2:0 ✺
11.11.23	Scunthorpe United - Gloucester City	2:0 ✺
04.11.23	Gloucester City - Warrington Town	1:3 ✺
28.10.23	Boston United - Gloucester City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLLL
- Spennymoor Town
English National League North
21.11.23	Farsley - Spennymoor Town	0:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
18.11.23	Spennymoor Town - Mickleover Sports	1:3 ✺
English National League North
14.11.23	Spennymoor Town - South Shields	2:5 ✺
11.11.23	King`s Lynn Town - Spennymoor Town	0:1 ✺
07.11.23	Spennymoor Town - Curzon Ashton	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
25.02.23	Gloucester City - Spennymoor Town	2:0
05.11.22	Spennymoor Town - Gloucester City	3:0
26.02.22	Spennymoor Town - Gloucester City	0:0
04.12.21	Gloucester City - Spennymoor Town	2:0
07.11.20	Spennymoor Town - Gloucester City	2:2
01.02.20	Gloucester City - Spennymoor Town	1:2
26.10.19	Spennymoor Town - Gloucester City	5:1

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