Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH - ROUND 39

Date: 12 March 2024, Tuesday


	Gloucester City		Tamworth

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.5	1.66
	4.5	3.75	1.7
	4.95	3.78	1.71
	4.95	3.78	1.69
	4.79	3.74	1.66
	4	3.55	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.59 ↓ (6.79)	3.68 ↓ (3.98)	1.7 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gloucester City
20.2%

Draw
25.2%

Tamworth
54.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.7%

23.3%

63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.4%

22.9%

64.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gloucester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gloucester City's performance.

Tamworth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tamworth might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gloucester City than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gloucester City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tamworth than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tamworth could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gloucester City - Tamworth Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gloucester won 1.

Gloucester is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Tamworth is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Tamworth could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Tamworth is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Gloucester won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Gloucester won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gloucester City
English National League North
09.03.24	Gloucester City - Boston United	3:7 ✺
24.02.24	Gloucester City - Scarborough Athletic	1:0 ✺
20.02.24	Buxton - Gloucester City	2:0 ✺
17.02.24	Rushall Olympic - Gloucester City	3:2 ✺
10.02.24	Gloucester City - South Shields	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLLL
- Tamworth
English National League North
09.03.24	Scarborough Athletic - Tamworth	0:1 ✺
02.03.24	Tamworth - Blyth Spartans	3:1 ✺
24.02.24	Tamworth - Curzon Ashton	0:0 ✺
20.02.24	Chorley - Tamworth	1:0 ✺
17.02.24	Hereford - Tamworth	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
24.10.23	Tamworth - Gloucester City	1:0
31.01.17	Gloucester City - Tamworth	2:0
06.09.16	Tamworth - Gloucester City	3:1
20.02.16	Gloucester City - Tamworth	1:2
07.11.15	Tamworth - Gloucester City	2:2
08.12.14	Gloucester City - Tamworth	1:2
12.08.14	Tamworth - Gloucester City	2:1

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