Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Divino Garcia Rosa (Goiatuba)


	Goiatuba		Aparecidense

	1	X	2
	2.82	3	2.35
	2.88	3.02	2.46
	1.69	3.81	4.41	Watch
	2.83	3.14	2.51
	2.6	3.15	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.6)	3.22 ↑ (3.15)	2.86 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Goiatuba
37.2%

Draw
29.5%

Aparecidense
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

29%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

29.1%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Goiatuba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Aparecidense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Goiatuba than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aparecidense than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Goiatuba - Aparecidense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Vinicius Tsimuta ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Renan Gorne ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 2, Julio Cesar ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 2 - 2, Alex Henrique ⚽,
63', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Goiatuba won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Goiatuba won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Aparecidense - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.84%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Goiatuba EC
Brazilian Serie D
09.08.25	EC São José Porto Alegre - Goiatuba	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Goiatuba - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Internacional de Limeira - Goiatuba	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	Goiatuba - FC Cascavel	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Itabirito - Goiatuba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25 WTWTW
- AA Aparecidense
Brazilian Serie D
09.08.25	Aparecidense - Maricá	2:2 ✺
02.08.25	Maricá - Aparecidense	1:2 ✺
26.07.25	Aparecidense - Capital CF Ltda	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Mixto - Aparecidense	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Aparecidense - Goianésia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Goiano
16.02.25	Goiatuba - Aparecidense	1:0
18.02.24	Aparecidense - Goiatuba	1:1
26.02.22	Aparecidense - Goiatuba	2:0
30.01.22	Goiatuba - Aparecidense	1:1

Goiatuba - Aparecidense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide