Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 24

Date: 20 September 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estádio da Serrinha (Goiania)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Portugal	Canal 11
Serbia	Arena Sport
Ukraine	Sport 1


	Goiás		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.55	Watch
	2.95	3.1	2.5	Watch
	3.08	3.15	2.6
	3.1	3.1	2.1
	2.98	3.26	2.45	Watch
	2.95	3.25	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↓ (3.8)	3.16 ↓ (3.36)	2.43 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Goiás
31.3%

Draw
29.8%

Flamengo
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.3%

27.5%

48.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

27%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Goiás has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Goiás's performance.

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Flamengo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Goiás than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Goiás that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Flamengo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	16.7%	58.3%

Goiás - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Goiás will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Flamengo will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Tadeu (C) 2. Maguinho 3. Lucas Halter 19. Bruno Melo 66. Hugo 55. Oyama L. 40. Everton Morelli 60. Guilherme 70. Anderson Oliveira 9. Matheus Babi 77. Allano	17. Rossi A. (G) 34. Matheuzinho 15. Fabricio Bruno 30. Pablo 6. Ayrton Lucas 8. Thiago Maia 29. Victor Hugo 7. Everton Ribeiro (C) 20. Gerson 27. Bruno Henrique 9. Pedro
Substitutes
27. Alesson 22. Apodi 13. Bruno Santos 49. Denzel 11. Diego Goncalves 43. Edu 88. Marcelo Rangel (G) 8. Meritao H. 10. Palacios J. 95. Rodrigues Adelino dos Santos V. 4. Sidimar 7. Vinicius	33. Cleiton 23. David Luiz 11. Everton 52. Evertton 48. Igor Jesus 39. Jose Welington 19. Lorran 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 44. Pedrinho 37. Petterson 3. Rodrigo Caio 1. Santos (G)
Coaches
Evangelista A.	Sampaoli J.

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 16 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Goiás won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Flamengo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Flamengo: Gabriel Noga (Knee Injury) Luiz Araujo (Injury) Varela G. (Injury) de Arrascaeta G. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Goiás: Gabriel Novaes (Injury) Sander (Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Goiás won 1 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 11-28.

Including matches at home between the teams Goiás won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Goiás EC
Brazilian Serie A
15.09.23	Palmeiras - Goiás	1:0 ✺
02.09.23	Goiás - Internacional RS	0:0 ✺
26.08.23	Corinthians - Goiás	1:1 ✺
21.08.23	Goiás - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
13.08.23	América Mineiro - Goiás	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LTTTW
- Flamengo RJ
Copa do Brasil
17.09.23	Flamengo - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.23	Flamengo - Athletico Paranaense	0:3 ✺
02.09.23	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
26.08.23	Flamengo - Internacional RS	0:0 ✺
20.08.23	Coritiba - Flamengo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
10.05.23	Flamengo - Goiás	2:0
11.09.22	Goiás - Flamengo	1:1
21.05.22	Flamengo - Goiás	1:0
18.01.21	Goiás - Flamengo	0:3
13.10.20	Flamengo - Goiás	2:1
31.10.19	Goiás - Flamengo	2:2
14.07.19	Flamengo - Goiás	6:1

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