Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A Betano - Round 28

Date: 29 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Sportbox.ru
Spain	Gol Stadium
World	Fanatiz


	Flamengo		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.75
	1.72	3.75	4.75
	1.74	3.83	4.98
	1.71	3.76	5	Watch
	1.62	3.8	5
	1.73	3.74	4.86	Watch
	1.72	3.75	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.74)	3.75 ↓ (3.75)	4.86 ↑ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
55.2%

Draw
25.3%

Athletico Paranaense
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

25.1%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

24.2%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Flamengo - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 43. Wesley 3. Leo Ortiz 23. David Luiz 6. Ayrton Lucas 5. Pulgar E. 37. Alcaraz C. 8. Gerson (C) 45. Plata G. 99. Gabriel Barbosa 20. Matheus Goncalves	41. Mycael (G) 4. Kaique Rocha 44. Thiago Heleno (C) 15. Gamarra M. 28. Cuello 26. Erick 88. Christian 10. Zapelli B. 37. Esquivel L. 92. Pablo 14. Canobbio A.
Substitutes
26. Alex Sandro 29. Allan 27. Bruno Henrique 33. Cleiton 14. de Arrascaeta G. 18. de la Cruz N. 52. Evertton 15. Fabricio Bruno 4. Leo Pereira 19. Lorran 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 2. Varela G.	7. Di Yorio L. 23. Felipinho 6. Fernando 29. Godoy L. 9. Gonzalo Mastriani 57. Joao Cruz 20. Julimar 24. Leo Linck (G) 22. Madson 43. Marcos Victor 11. Nikao 8. Praxedes
Coaches
Tite	Varini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
27', Gamarra M. 🟨,
36', David Luiz 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Alcaraz C. ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
61', Ayrton Lucas ↓, Alex Sandro ↑,
61', Plata G. ↓, de Arrascaeta G. ↑,
66', Zapelli B. ↓, Praxedes ↑,
75', Matheus Goncalves ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
75', David Luiz ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
75', Esquivel L. ↓, Fernando ↑,
75', Pablo ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
79', Christian 🟨,
85', Canobbio A. ↓, Julimar ↑,
85', Cuello ↓, Madson ↑,
90', 1 - 0, Gerson ⚽, Wesley (A),

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Flamengo won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Flamengo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Flamengo is a favorite.

There will not play in Flamengo: Carlinhos (Red Card) Everton (Achilles Tendon Injury) Pedro (Knee Injury) Vina M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Fernandinho (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Flamengo won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 33-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Flamengo won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 20-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
26.09.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.09.24	Grêmio - Flamengo	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.09.24	Flamengo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.09.24	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.09.24	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLTW
- Athletico Paranaense
Copa Sudamericana
26.09.24	Racing - Athletico Paranaense	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.09.24	Criciúma - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Racing	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Vasco da Gama	2:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
16.06.24	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	1:1
13.09.23	Flamengo - Athletico Paranaense	0:3
Copa do Brasil
12.07.23	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	0:2
05.07.23	Flamengo - Athletico Paranaense	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
07.05.23	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	2:1
Copa Libertadores
29.10.22	Flamengo - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
Copa do Brasil
17.08.22	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	0:1

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