Match Info

PORTUGAL: CAMPEONATO DE PORTUGAL - GROUP C - ROUND 25

Date: 24 March 2024, Sunday


	Gouveia		Peniche

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.5	1.68
	4.5	3.6	1.68
	4.47	3.8	1.71
	4.47	3.8	1.69
	4.51	3.62	1.67
	4.3	3.6	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.41 ↓ (5.84)	3.65 ↓ (3.66)	1.69 ↑ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gouveia
20.7%

Draw
25%

Peniche
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.8%

25.2%

59.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.5%

24.7%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gouveia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Peniche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gouveia than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gouveia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peniche than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Peniche could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
52', 1 - 1, Costa P. ⚽,
72', 1 - 2, Alexandre R. ⚽,
75', 1 - 3, Diop A. ⚽,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Gouveia is Relegated to

Gouveia has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Peniche is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Peniche could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Peniche is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Gouveia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Gouveia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
17.03.24	SB Castelo Branco - Gouveia	3:2 ✺
09.03.24	Sertanense - Gouveia	2:1 ✺
03.03.24	Gouveia - Vitória de Sernache	1:2 ✺
23.02.24	União de Coimbra - Gouveia	1:0 ✺
18.02.24	Gouveia - SC Lusitânia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLLT
- GD Peniche
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
17.03.24	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	2:0 ✺
10.03.24	União de Coimbra - Peniche	0:1 ✺
03.03.24	Peniche - SC Lusitânia	1:4 ✺
25.02.24	Rabo de Peixe - Peniche	0:0 ✺
18.02.24	Peniche - Fontinhas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
10.12.23	Peniche - Gouveia	0:3

Gouveia - Peniche: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide