Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 15

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Portugal	Canal 11
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz


	Grêmio		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	1.86	Watch
	3.7	3.35	1.98	Watch
	4.18	3.5	2.01
	4.09	3.42	1.96
	3.8	3.2	1.91
	4.05	3.5	1.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↑ (3.65)	3.4 ↑ (3.2)	1.95 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
23.8%

Draw
27.8%

Flamengo
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

28.9%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

28%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Grêmio - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Flamengo will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 2. Fabian Balbuena (C) 6. Gustavo Martins 44. Viery 7. Pavon C. 19. Noriega E. 33. Perez L. 54. Pedro Gabriel 37. Gabriel Mec 95. Carlos Vinicius 9. Amuzu F.	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira (C) 6. Ayrton Lucas 52. Evertton Araujo 21. Jorginho 19. Plata G. 15. Carrascal J. 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro
Substitutes
77. Andre Henrique 22. Braithwaite M. 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 99. Enamorado J. 14. Marcos Rocha 21. Tete 24. Thiago Beltrame (G) 39. Tiago 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann 10. Willian	27. Bruno Henrique 13. Danilo 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 22. Emerson Royal 11. Everton 77. Goes J. 7. Luiz Araujo 75. Mariano L. 8. Niguez S. 44. Vitao
Coaches
Castro L.	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Pedro Gabriel ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
20', Jorginho 🟨,
44', Pavon C. 🟨,
45+3', Evertton Araujo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', Plata G. ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
65', Ayrton Lucas ↓, Emerson Royal ↑,
65', Perez L. ↓, Tiago ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Carrascal J. ⚽, Emerson Royal (A),
73', Pedro 🟨,
77', Amuzu F. ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
77', Pavon C. ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
87', Carrascal J. ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
87', Pedro ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.

Grêmio is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Flamengo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Flamengo is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Grêmio: Arthur Melo (Thigh Injury) Marlon (Broken ankle) Riquelme (Red Card) Roger (Hamstring Injury) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Flamengo: Alex Sandro (Yellow Cards) Lucas Paqueta (Muscle Injury) Pulgar E. (Shoulder Injury) de Arrascaeta G. (Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Nardoni J. (Injury) Wagner Leonardo (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 16:41. (average 0.8:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:20. (average 1.2:2.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 45.86%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Deportivo Riestra - Grêmio	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Palestino - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Grêmio - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Grêmio - Confiança	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTTWW
- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Flamengo	Abandoned ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	0:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Flamengo - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 ?TTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Flamengo - Grêmio	1:1
13.04.25	Grêmio - Flamengo	0:2
22.09.24	Grêmio - Flamengo	3:2
13.06.24	Flamengo - Grêmio	2:1
25.10.23	Grêmio - Flamengo	3:2
Copa do Brasil
16.08.23	Flamengo - Grêmio	1:0
26.07.23	Grêmio - Flamengo	0:2

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