Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 13

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Grêmio		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.85	3.35	4.25
	1.97	3.41	4.39
	1.94	3.41	4.19	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4
	1.92	3.41	4.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.83)	3.32 ↑ (3.32)	4.23 ↓ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
49.6%

Draw
28.2%

Coritiba
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

27.8%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

27.8%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Grêmio - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Coritiba will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 7. Pavon C. 3. Wagner Leonardo 44. Viery 54. Pedro Gabriel 33. Perez L. 8. Arthur Melo (C) 99. Enamorado J. 37. Gabriel Mec 9. Amuzu F. 95. Carlos Vinicius	22. Pedro Rangel (G) 2. Tinga 3. Maicon (C) 55. Jacy 26. Bruno Melo 21. Thiago Santos 36. Vini Paulista 11. Lucas Ronier 10. Josue 77. Breno Lopes 32. Pedro Rocha
Substitutes
77. Andre Henrique 22. Braithwaite M. 38. Caio Paulista 2. Fabian Balbuena 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 14. Marcos Rocha 5. Nardoni J. 19. Noriega E. 65. Riquelme 47. Roger 21. Tete 4. Walter Kannemann	33. Alves D. 14. Enzo Vagner 6. Felipe Jonatan 88. Fernando Sobral 39. Gustavo 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 13. Keiller (G) 7. Lavega J. 4. Rodrigo Moledo 23. Tiago Coser 8. Wallisson 29. Willian Oliveira
Coaches
Castro L.	Fernando Seabra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
30', Bruno Melo 🟥,
34', Breno Lopes ↓, Felipe Jonatan ↑,
43', 1 - 0, Gabriel Mec ⚽, Enamorado J. (A),
45+6', Perez L. 🟨,
45+8', Vini Paulista 🟨,
45+8', Breno Lopes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Perez L. ↓, Noriega E. ↑,
48', Viery 🟨,
59', Vini Paulista ↓, Willian Oliveira ↑,
59', Maicon ↓, Joao Pedro Chermont ↑,
69', Enamorado J. ↓, Tete ↑,
75', Gabriel Mec ↓, Nardoni J. ↑,
75', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
78', Pedro Rocha ↓, Lavega J. ↑,
78', Thiago Santos ↓, Tiago Coser ↑,
89', Arthur Melo ↓, Riquelme ↑,
90+5', Castro L. 🟨,
90+5', Castro L. 🟥,
90+8', Jacy 🟥,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Grêmio is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Grêmio: Gustavo Martins (Yellow Cards) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Marlon (Broken ankle) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury) Walter Kannemann (Inactive) Willian (Inactive)

There will not play in Coritiba: Gomez S. (Yellow Cards) Keno (Inactive) Pedro Morisco (Shoulder Injury) Renato Marques (Red Card) Rodrigo Rodrigues (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:20. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 1.5:0.6).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Coritiba: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37:47	-10	38
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Grêmio - Confiança	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Grêmio - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWTL
- Coritiba
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Coritiba - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Coritiba	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Coritiba - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
01.04.26	Coritiba - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.11.23	Coritiba - Grêmio	1:2
25.06.23	Grêmio - Coritiba	5:1
31.01.21	Coritiba - Grêmio	1:1
07.10.20	Grêmio - Coritiba	2:1
15.10.17	Coritiba - Grêmio	0:1
22.06.17	Grêmio - Coritiba	2:0
07.09.16	Coritiba - Grêmio	4:0

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