Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi (La Plata) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Benitez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	21:30	Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2
Bolivia	20:30	ESPN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	02:30	Arena Premium 1
Canada	20:30	beIN Sports
Croatia	02:30	Arena Sport 2
Ecuador	19:30	ESPN
Germany	02:30	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	03:30	Sport 3
Mexico	18:30	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	02:30	ESPN
Peru	19:30	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	02:30	Polsat Sport 1
Serbia	02:30	Arena Premium 2
Uruguay	21:30	Disney+
Usa	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	20:30	Disney+, ESPN
International	00:30	Pluto TV


	Estudiantes La Plata		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.2	2.15	Watch
	4.20	2.90	2.05
	3.7	2.92	2.12	Watch
	3.98	3.12	2.18
	4.22	3.07	2.07
	3.85	3.05	2.13
	4.08	3.14	2.05	Watch
	4.1	3	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.99 ↑ (3.4)	3.05 ↑ (3.04)	2.1 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estudiantes La Plata
23.7%

Draw
31.1%

Flamengo
45.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.5%

30.8%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

30%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estudiantes La Plata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estudiantes La Plata than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	60%	40%

Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Muslera F. (G) 40. Mancuso E. 4. Nunez S. 26. Funes Mori R. 13. Benedetti G. 21. Piovi L. 22. Castro A. 31. Rodriguez B. 10. Palacios T. 17. Burgos J. 9. Carrillo G. (C)	1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 26. Alex Sandro 5. Pulgar E. 8. Niguez S. 15. Carrascal J. 11. Lucas Paqueta 16. Samuel Lino 27. Bruno Henrique (C)
Substitutes
28. Aguirre B. 27. Alario L. 15. Arzamendia S. 18. Cetre E. 32. Correa J. 3. Desabato M. 19. Gaich A. 1. Iacovich F. (G) 52. Kociubinski B. 34. Monsalve M. 29. Perez Fabricio 7. Sosa J.	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 30. Freitas J. 77. Goes J. 61. Joao Souza 7. Luiz Araujo 9. Pedro 19. Plata G. 14. Valencia A. 2. Varela G. 44. Vitao
Coaches
Medina A.	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Castro A. 🟨,
43', Piovi L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Lucas Paqueta 🟨,
68', Palacios T. ↓, Correa J. ↑,
71', Carrascal J. 🟨,
74', Burgos J. ↓, Cetre E. ↑,
75', Rodriguez B. ↓, Monsalve M. ↑,
80', Samuel Lino ↓, Plata G. ↑,
80', Bruno Henrique ↓, Pedro ↑,
85', Lucas Paqueta ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
86', Varela G. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Estudiantes is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Flamengo is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Estudiantes could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Flamengo has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Flamengo is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Estudiantes: Carrillo G. (Inactive) Correa J. (Muscle Injury) Elias J. (Muscle Injury) Gabriel Neves (Arm Injury) Rojo M. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Flamengo: Ayrton Lucas (Thigh Injury) Evertton Araujo (Thigh Injury) de Arrascaeta G. (Wrist Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Estudiantes: Muslera F. (Inactive) Nunez S. (Inactive).

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:5 (averaging 0.8:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Estudiantes against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:2 goals (averaging 1:1 per game).

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Estudiantes L.P.: 33.13%

Last Results with these Odds

Estudiantes La Plata - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27.51%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Flamengo - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.72%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estudiantes La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.10.26	Central Córdoba - Estudiantes La Plata	2:2 ✺
05.10.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	3:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
01.10.26	Platense - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0 ✺
Argentinian International Super Cup
26.09.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Rosario Central	1:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.09.26	Lanús - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 TWLLL
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Flamengo - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
08.10.26	Santos - Flamengo	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.09.26	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
20.05.26	Flamengo - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0
29.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1
25.09.25	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1 penalties
18.09.25	Flamengo - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1

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