Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 22

Date: 8 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Grêmio		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	3.40	Watch
	2.30	3.10	3.25
	2.33	3.10	3.10	Watch
	2.36	3.10	3.71
	2.4	3.1	3.24	Watch
	2.40	3.00	3.40
	2.46	3.08	3.34	Watch
	2.38	3.15	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.33)	3.09 ↓ (3.26)	3.35 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
40.5%

Draw
31%

São Paulo
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

28.7%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	55.6%	11.1%

Grêmio - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 27. Diego Caito 6. Gustavo Martins 82. Wallace 23. Marlon 19. Noriega E. 7. Pavon C. 20. Villasanti M. (C) 5. Nardoni J. 77. Cabral J. 95. Carlos Vinicius	23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 5. Robert Arboleda 54. Luis Osorio 18. Wendell 94. Danielzinho 29. Pablo Maia 8. Marcos Antonio 10. Luciano 11. Ferreira 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)
Substitutes
9. Amuzu F. 22. Braithwaite M. 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 14. Marcos Rocha 30. Matheus Nascimento 33. Perez L. 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann	17. Andre Silva 16. Bobadilla D. 20. Buta 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 80. Cauly 34. dos Santos P. 22. Duarte D. 12. Iago Borduchi 28. Newton 35. Sabino 43. Santana G. 27. Victor Sa
Coaches
Castro L.	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+2', 0 - 1, Marcos Antonio ⚽, Luciano (A),
45+5', Villasanti M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Cabral J. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Wallace ⚽, Carlos Vinicius (A),
54', Nardoni J. ↓, Dodi ↑,
70', Danielzinho ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
71', Ferreira ↓, Cauly ↑,
75', Luciano 🟨,
77', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
78', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
81', Diego Caito 🟨,
86', 2 - 1, Pavon C. ⚽,
90', Pablo Maia ↓, Santana G. ↑,
90', Wendell ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
90+1', Villasanti M. ↓, Walter Kannemann ↑,
90+1', Marlon 🟨,
90+2', Andre Silva 🟨,
90+5', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
90+5', Robert Arboleda 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.

Grêmio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Grêmio is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Grêmio: Tete (Inactive) Willian (Inactive)

There will not play in São Paulo: Bobadilla D. (Knee Injury) Diaz E. (Personal Reasons) Lucas Moura (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Toloi R. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:5. (average 1.9:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 3.01 are the expected chance of winning is 31.08%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Grêmio - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
02.08.26	Mirassol - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
30.07.26	Grêmio - Bolívar	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.26	Grêmio - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.07.26	Bolívar - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTLTL
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.26	Flamengo - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
22.07.26	São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
31.05.26	Remo - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
26.05.26	São Paulo - Boston River	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.05.26	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:0
16.10.25	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:0
17.05.25	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:1
01.12.24	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:1
17.07.24	São Paulo - Grêmio	1:0
21.10.23	São Paulo - Grêmio	3:0
04.06.23	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:1

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