Match Info

Serie B - Round 30

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Grêmio Novorizontino		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.9	7	Watch
	1.50	4.10	5.50
	1.48	4.05	5.9	Watch
	1.56	4.25	6.71
	1.51	4.07	6.3	Watch
	1.48	4.15	6.55
	1.5	3.98	6.19	Watch
	1.49	4.1	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.65)	4.08 ↑ (3.75)	6.27 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
62.3%

Draw
22.9%

São Bernardo
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

24.8%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

23.5%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio Novorizontino's performance.

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). São Bernardo will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Novorizontino (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/E Goals, 1st Half - odd (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 26. Gabriel Bahia 14. Eduardo Brock (C) 5. Sander 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 41. Reidiney 10. Romulo 30. Nicolas Careca 11. Robson	1. Alex Alves (G) 97. Augusto 35. Jemerson 3. Helder Maciel 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 8. Foguinho (C) 26. Dudu Miraima 33. Mario Sergio 11. Pedro Vitor 9. Felipe Garcia 29. Pedrinho
Substitutes
9. Carlao 3. Carlinhos 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 27. Diego Mathias 50. Juninho 24. Lora J. 28. Marlon 66. Maykon Jesus 8. Ortiz C. 15. Tavinho 16. Vinicius Paiva	37. Davi D. 27. Echapora 10. Fabricio Daniel 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 31. Lucas Fernandes 14. Lucas Lima 90. Luizao 77. Marcao Silva 6. Para 17. Romisson
Coaches
Moreira E.	Vinicius Bergantin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Helder Maciel 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Augusto 🟨,
60', Felipe Garcia ↓, Fabricio Daniel ↑,
60', Reidiney ↓, Juninho ↑,
60', Nicolas Careca ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
70', Leo Naldi ↓, Carlao ↑,
74', Foguinho ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
74', Pedrinho ↓, Davi D. ↑,
85', Mario Sergio ↓, Para ↑,
85', Pedro Vitor ↓, Echapora ↑,
85', Romulo ↓, Tavinho ↑,
85', Robson ↓, Diego Galo ↑,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 3rd in the Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ PlayoffsFinal) and 12th).

Novorizontino has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

São Bernardo has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this matchup, Novorizontino is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Novorizontino: Matheus Bianqui (Yellow Cards) Patrick (Yellow Cards) Renato Palm (Injury).

Confirmed absences for São Bernardo: Daniel Amorim (Inactive) Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Novorizontino: Ortiz C. (Injury).

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Novorizontino has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:5 (averaging 1.6:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Novorizontino against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 6:3 goals (averaging 2:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio Novorizontino - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.28%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
18.09.26	Ceará - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	3:1 ✺
28.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LTWWW
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
18.09.26	São Bernardo - Atlético Goianiense	1:0 ✺
14.09.26	América Mineiro - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
10.09.26	São Bernardo - Londrina	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
28.08.26	Goiás - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
31.05.26	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
09.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	2:1
06.02.25	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
04.02.17	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	3:2

Upcoming Matches