Match Info

Serie B - Round 28

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+


	América Mineiro		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.10	2.45	Watch
	2.85	3.20	2.30
	2.75	3.20	2.55	Watch
	3.07	3.31	2.49
	2.61	3.08	2.81
	3.05	3.25	2.35
	2.76	3.10	2.61	Watch
	2.90	3.15	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.5)	3.17 ↓ (3.2)	2.5 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
32.9%

Draw
29.6%

São Bernardo
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.2%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

28.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for América Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for São Bernardo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

América Mineiro - São Bernardo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). São Bernardo will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - América MG (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. América MG (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Bruno Brigido (G) 31. Fabio 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 4. Rafa Barcelos 25. Ostchega T. 55. Otavio Goncalves 88. Gustavo Barreto 37. Julio Cesar 9. Willian Bigode 7. Guilherme Parede 20. Paulo Victor	1. Alex Alves (G) 3. Helder Maciel 35. Jemerson (C) 97. Augusto 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 14. Lucas Lima 26. Dudu Miraima 33. Mario Sergio 17. Romisson 9. Felipe Garcia 29. Pedrinho
Substitutes
15. Alex Silva 70. Dorna K. 5. Elizari F. 8. Felipe Amaral 1. Gustavo (G) 13. Heitor 93. Jorge Jimenez 99. Marcelo Macola 30. Montes L. 14. Pineiro R. 77. Segovia M. 3. Sosa L.	30. Breninho 37. Davi D. 10. Fabricio Daniel 8. Foguinho 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 16. Jota 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 31. Lucas Fernandes 90. Luizao 77. Marcao Silva 11. Pedro Vitor
Coaches
Gonzaga Leite D.	Vinicius Bergantin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', Gustavo Barreto 🟨,
54', Lucas Lima 🟨,
60', Julio Cesar ↓, Segovia M. ↑,
60', Otavio Goncalves ↓, Jorge Jimenez ↑,
67', Helder Maciel 🟨,
68', Willian Bigode (Penalty Awarded),
69', Felipe Garcia ↓, Pedro Vitor ↑,
69', Romisson ↓, Fabricio Daniel ↑,
76', Guilherme Parede ↓, Pineiro R. ↑,
76', Pedrinho ↓, Davi D. ↑,
77', Dudu Miraima ↓, Foguinho ↑,
80', 0 - 1, Fabricio Daniel ⚽, Davi D. (A),
81', Gustavo Barreto ↓, Elizari F. ↑,
81', Willian Bigode ↓, Marcelo Macola ↑,
82', Helder Maciel ↓, Luizao ↑,
86', Jorge Jimenez 🟨,
88', 0 - 2, Pedro Vitor ⚽, Rodrigo Ferreira (A),
90+3', Fabricio Daniel 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 14).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Injury) Cassio Meneses (Knee Injury) Eduardo Person (Inactive) Emerson Santos (Injury) Gabriel Domingos (Injury) Gonzalo Mastriani (Inactive)

There will not play in São Bernardo: Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in América MG: Manoel (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, América MG won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
09.09.26	América Mineiro - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	CRB Maceio - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	América Mineiro - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
24.08.26	Sport Recife - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
20.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLL
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
10.09.26	São Bernardo - Londrina	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
28.08.26	Goiás - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
19.08.26	Fortaleza - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.05.26	São Bernardo - América Mineiro	1:1

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