Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 17

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Gran Peña		Noia

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.45
	1.06	11.07	20.32	Watch
	2.1	2.88	3.5
	2.04	3.04	3.54
	2.08	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.97)	4.6 ↑ (3.25)	6.86 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gran Peña
59.6%

Draw
24.2%

Noia
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

28%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

26.3%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gran Peña has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gran Peña's performance.

Noia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Noia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gran Peña than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gran Peña that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Noia than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Noia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gran Peña - Noia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Rodriguez A. ⚽,
18', 2 - 0, Fontan Davila M. ⚽,
25', 3 - 0, Armada T. ⚽,
32', 4 - 0, Coira A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
80', 5 - 0, Barrios Comesana A. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Gran Peña is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Noia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gran Peña will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Gran Peña won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Gran Pena	5	2	1	2	8:8	0	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gran Peña FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
11.01.26	RC Villalbes - Gran Peña	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Gran Peña - Barbadás	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Alondras - Gran Peña	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Gran Peña - Lugo B	2:3 ✺
23.11.25	Gran Peña - Viveiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLTLT
- CF Noia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
11.01.26	Noia - Silva SD	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Céltiga - Noia	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Noia - Juventud Cambados	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Boiro - Noia	4:0 ✺
23.11.25	Noia - Barco	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
27.10.24	Noia - Gran Peña	2:1

Gran Peña - Noia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide