Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 5

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes (Granada)

Referee: Fuentes A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Dsports 9
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	DSports 9
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	DSports 9
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Granada		Leganés

	1	X	2
	2.35	3	3.2	Watch
	2.37	3.1	2.85
	2.4	2.88	3.15
	2.5	3.2	3.02
	40.00	17.61	1.01	Watch
	2.49	2.91	3.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.69 ↑ (2.45)	5.45 ↑ (3.13)	2.75 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Granada
17.4%

Draw
27.7%

Leganés
54.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

30.1%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

30.5%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Granada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Granada's form might have worsened.

Leganés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+23.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leganés's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Granada than the current prediction. (+21.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Granada, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (-23.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leganés, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	57.1%	28.6%

Granada - Leganés Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Granada will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Leganés will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Leganés (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Granada (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Granada (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Leganés (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Astralaga A. (G) 2. Casadesus P. 5. Lama M. 24. Williams L. 7. Sola A. 28. Oppong O. 21. Saenz P. 8. Aleman P. 20. Ruiz S. (C) 17. Faye S. 19. Pascual J.	1. Soriano J. (G) 6. Aguilar Lopez G. 3. Saenz J. (C) 2. Marvel 17. Garcia N. 11. Duk 16. Melero G. 24. Diawara A. 8. Cisse S. 10. Cruz J. 19. Garcia D.
Substitutes
4. Alcaraz R. 11. Arnaiz J. M. 33. Cortes S. 34. Gagnidze L. 32. Haro P. 18. Hongla M. 3. Hormigo D. 26. Rodelas S. 14. Trigueros M. 1. Zidane L. (G)	21. Campos A. 9. de la Fuente M. 22. Figueredo S. 31. Garrido J. (G) 26. Guirao C. 35. Hamansenya D. 14. Lopez R. 23. Millan A. 18. Pauwels B. 13. San Roman M. (G) 27. Sy A.
Coaches
Rojo Martin J.	Lopez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', Lama M. 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Garcia D. (Pen),
45+2', Marvel 🟨,
45+2', Oppong O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Cruz J. 🟨,
60', Saenz P. ↓, Arnaiz J. M. ↑,
61', Duk 🟨,
64', Garcia D. ↓, de la Fuente M. ↑,
65', Melero G. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
65', Cruz J. ↓, Millan A. ↑,
65', Casadesus P. ↓, Rodelas S. ↑,
65', Lama M. ↓, Alcaraz R. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Lopez R. ⚽, Cisse S. (A),
76', Ruiz S. ↓, Gagnidze L. ↑,
76', Aleman P. ↓, Cortes S. ↑,
82', Aguilar Lopez G. ↓, Campos A. ↑,
90+2', Garcia N. ↓, Sy A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Granada won 2.

Granada has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Leganés has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Leganés may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Granada: Diallo B. (Injury)

There will not play in Leganés: Figueredo S. (Injury) Pulido R. (Knee Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Granada won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Granada won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga2
06.09.25	Málaga - Granada	2:2 ✺
31.08.25	Granada - Mirandés	1:2 ✺
22.08.25	Eibar - Granada	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	Granada - Deportivo A Coruña	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Granada - Al Ain	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL
- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga2
07.09.25	Leonesa - Leganés	0:0 ✺
01.09.25	Leganés - Deportivo A Coruña	2:2 ✺
22.08.25	Leganés - Cádiz	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Huesca - Leganés	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Leganés - Real Oviedo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
27.05.23	Granada - Leganés	2:0
27.11.22	Leganés - Granada	1:0
Spanish LaLiga
22.06.20	Leganés - Granada	0:0
28.09.19	Granada - Leganés	1:0
04.03.17	Leganés - Granada	1:0
01.10.16	Granada - Leganés	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.12.15	Granada - Leganés	1:0

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