Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 18

Date: 28 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Lakeside Stadium (Melbourne)


	South Melbourne		Green Gully

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.40	4.60	6.25
	1.37	4.75	5.50
	1.41	5.29	6.58
	1.44	4.74	5.82	Watch
	1.34	5.20	6.40
	1.33	4.90	6.86	Watch
	1.38	4.60	6.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.52)	4.87 ↑ (4.45)	6.26 ↑ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
66.5%

Draw
18.9%

Green Gully
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

20.6%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

15.7%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in South Melbourne's performance.

Green Gully has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-20.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with South Melbourne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Green Gully than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Green Gully could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

South Melbourne - Green Gully Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 0 - 2, ⚽,
79', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 14 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 3.

South Melbourne is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Green Gully is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, South Melbourne is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:18. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, South Melbourne won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
19.06.26	Bentleigh Greens - South Melbourne	1:5 ✺
07.06.26	South Melbourne - Altona Magic	2:3 ✺
30.05.26	Hume City - South Melbourne	1:1 ✺
25.05.26	South Melbourne - Avondale	0:4 ✺
OFC Pro League
23.05.26	South Melbourne - Auckland FC 2	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLTLL
- Green Gully SC
Australian NPL Victoria
20.06.26	Hume City - Green Gully	3:2 ✺
05.06.26	Green Gully - Avondale	0:2 ✺
30.05.26	Caroline Springs George Cross - Green Gully	0:0 ✺
22.05.26	Green Gully - Heidelberg United	0:1 ✺
15.05.26	Green Gully - Melbourne City Youth	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
13.03.26	Green Gully - South Melbourne	0:1
03.08.25	South Melbourne - Green Gully	1:1
25.04.25	Green Gully - South Melbourne	1:0
12.07.24	Green Gully - South Melbourne	0:1
12.04.24	South Melbourne - Green Gully	3:0
28.05.23	South Melbourne - Green Gully	1:0
24.02.23	Green Gully - South Melbourne	1:3

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