Match Info

League Two - Round 3

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Blundell Park (Cleethorpes)

Referee: Kennard-Kettle Z. (Eng)


	Grimsby Town		Newport County

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	7
	1.46	4.4	6.5
	1.49	4.25	5.9
	1.46	4.54	6.84
	1.16	6.90	14.60	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.47	4.33	6.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.54)	4.7 ↑ (4.16)	7.71 ↑ (6.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grimsby Town
67.4%

Draw
20.2%

Newport County
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

22.7%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

22%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grimsby Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grimsby Town's performance.

Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grimsby Town than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Grimsby Town - Newport County Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Grimsby will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Newport will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newport: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grimsby (votes: 1 - 50%). Newport (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pym C. (G) 5. Rodgers H. 24. Tharme D. 17. McJannett C. 3. Sweeney J. 14. Amaluzor J. 4. Green K. 20. McEachran G. 7. Walker J. 30. Vernam C. 9. Kabia J.	1. Tzanev N. (G) 22. Ogunneye H. 15. Jenkins L. 4. Baker M. (C) 18. Shephard L. 17. Davies T. 14. Whitmore K. 8. Smith M. 2. Evans C. 23. Reindorf M. 9. Baker-Richardson C.
Substitutes
41. Auton S. (G) 18. Burns D. 22. Gardner C. 8. Khouri E. 16. Staunton R. 15. Turi G. D. 21. Warren T.	11. Antwi C. 5. Clarke J. 3. Driscoll-Glennon A. 7. Kamwa B. 21. Spellman M. 12. Thomas J. 28. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Artell D.	Hughes D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Baker-Richardson C. (Own goal),
8', Smith M. 🟨,
19', Kabia J. (Pen),
30', Whitmore K. 🟨,
36', Evans C. 🟨,
45+1', Kabia J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Smith M. ↓, Antwi C. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Baker M. ⚽, Reindorf M. (A),
62', Amaluzor J. 🟨,
65', Amaluzor J. ↓, Burns D. ↑,
68', Ogunneye H. ↓, Thomas J. ↑,
71', Shephard L. ↓, Clarke J. ↑,
74', Walker J. ↓, Khouri E. ↑,
78', Reindorf M. ↓, Kamwa B. ↑,
78', Baker-Richardson C. ↓, Spellman M. ↑,
81', Vernam C. ↓, Gardner C. ↑,
81', Rodgers H. ↓, Staunton R. ↑,
81', Sweeney J. ↓, Warren T. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Green K. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grimsby won 2.

Grimsby has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Newport has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Grimsby is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Grimsby: Svanthorsson J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Newport: Warner J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Grimsby: Gilsenan Z. (Inactive) Rose D. (Inactive)

We predict that Grimsby will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grimsby won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Grimsby won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grimsby Town
English League Cup
12.08.25	Grimsby Town - Shrewsbury Town	3:1 ✺
English League Two
09.08.25	Harrogate Town - Grimsby Town	3:3 ✺
02.08.25	Grimsby Town - Crawley Town	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Grimsby Town - Peterborough United	3:2 ✺
23.07.25	Boston United - Grimsby Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WTWWW
- Newport County
English League Cup
12.08.25	Newport County - Millwall	0:1 ✺
English League Two
09.08.25	Crawley Town - Newport County	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Newport County - Notts County	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
29.07.25	Barnet - Newport County	2:3 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Torquay United - Newport County	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.1 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
22.03.25	Grimsby Town - Newport County	1:0
16.11.24	Newport County - Grimsby Town	0:0
06.04.24	Grimsby Town - Newport County	1:0
16.12.23	Newport County - Grimsby Town	1:1
07.03.23	Grimsby Town - Newport County	1:1
03.09.22	Newport County - Grimsby Town	0:2
06.02.21	Newport County - Grimsby Town	1:0

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