Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Carlo Zecchini (Grosseto)

Referee: Totaro G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Grosseto		Sambenedettese

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.00	3.30	3.10
	1.66	3.55	4.10	Watch
	2.09	3.30	3.70
	1.78	3.67	3.97	Watch
	2.06	3.10	3.65
	2.03	3.33	3.64	Watch
	1.93	3.40	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.63)	3.38 ↓ (3.72)	3.67 ↓ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grosseto
47.6%

Draw
27.3%

Sambenedettese
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

24.7%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

23.7%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grosseto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grosseto's form might have worsened.

Sambenedettese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sambenedettese's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grosseto than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grosseto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sambenedettese than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sambenedettese, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Grosseto - Sambenedettese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Marcu A. (G) 19. Montini A. 27. Brenna D. 23. Ampollini F. (C) 47. Mannelli M. 29. Andreoli L. 8. Damiani M. 5. Sabattini L. 70. Fabri F. 28. Gaddini M. 9. Gori L.	12. Krapikas T. (G) 4. Zini A. 5. Chelli M. 17. Pezzola L. 30. Nicoli S. 37. Toure M. 6. Piccoli M. 10. Marranzino P. 18. Candellori K. (C) 9. Sgarbi L. 93. Magnaghi S.
Substitutes
24. Alfani L. 78. Brigliozzi D. (G) 1. Cabella M. (G) 32. Ciraudo A. 99. Della Mora T. 25. Fantacci T. 16. Fiorani M. 11. Fiorini P. 79. Hasani A. 77. Lorenzelli E. 18. Lorenzini J. 81. Mastacchi L. 10. Mastroianni F. 12. Menicucci D. (G) 39. Tosi L.	38. Buljan L. 1. Cultraro G. (G) 7. Faggioli A. 90. Kosijer S. 21. Perrotta F. 14. Plicco E. 11. Stabile D. P. 8. Tunjov G.
Coaches
Indiani P.	D'Alesio F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Piccoli M. ⚽, Nicoli S. (A),
15', 0 - 2, Sgarbi L. ⚽, Piccoli M. (A),
38', Nicoli S. 🟨,
43', Ampollini F. 🟨,
45+4', Gori L. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gaddini M. ↓, Fiorini P. ↑,
51', Magnaghi S. ↓, Stabile D. P. ↑,
51', Marranzino P. ↓, Faggioli A. ↑,
54', Zini A. 🟨,
56', Sabattini L. 🟨,
57', 0 - 3, Candellori K. ⚽,
60', Pezzola L. 🟨,
61', Damiani M. 🟨,
65', Montini A. ↓, Ciraudo A. ↑,
65', Fabri F. ↓, Mastroianni F. ↑,
66', Damiani M. ↓, Fiorani M. ↑,
74', Candellori K. ↓, Plicco E. ↑,
74', Sgarbi L. ↓, Perrotta F. ↑,
75', Sabattini L. ↓, Fantacci T. ↑,
76', 1 - 3, Mastroianni F. ⚽,
80', Fantacci T. 🟨,
81', Fiorani M. 🟨,
86', Toure M. ↓, Tunjov G. ↑,
89', Krapikas T. 🟨,
89', 🟨,

Preview

A clear contrast in standings as an upper-tier team meets a relegation-threatened side (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/8 - finals) and 20th in the Relegation).

Grosseto has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Sambenedettese has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

In this matchup, Grosseto is considered the favorite to take the win.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Grosseto	8	4	3	1	14:7	7	15
19	Sambenedettese	8	1	2	5	11:14	-3	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Grosseto
Italian Serie C Group B
26.09.26	Pineto - Grosseto	0:4 ✺
20.09.26	Grosseto - Perugia	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Grosseto - Campobasso	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Pianese - Grosseto	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
09.09.26	Grosseto - Latina	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWTTL
- Sambenedettese Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
26.09.26	Sambenedettese - Campobasso	1:2 ✺
21.09.26	Pianese - Sambenedettese	1:1 ✺
16.09.26	Sambenedettese - Atalanta U23	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Pineto - Sambenedettese	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Sambenedettese - Spezia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLL

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