Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 13 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Ulloa D. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Grêmio		Godoy Cruz

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	5.25	Watch
	1.63	3.5	5.5
	1.75	3.4	5	Watch
	1.78	3.42	5.36
	1.76	3.45	5.24	Watch
	1.67	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.93	Watch
	1.75	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.67)	3.43 ↓ (3.61)	5.22 ↓ (5.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
54.5%

Draw
27.5%

Godoy Cruz
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

26.1%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

25.3%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Godoy Cruz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Godoy Cruz than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Grêmio - Godoy Cruz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Godoy Cruz (3.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Grêmio will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Grêmio will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 3 - 75%). Godoy Cruz (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tiago Volpi (G) 18. Joao Pedro 21. Jemerson 3. Wagner Leonardo (C) 25. Lucas Esteves 99. Olivera C. 17. Dodi 35. Ronald 11. Monsalve M. 22. Braithwaite M. 19. Arezo M.	1. Petroli F. (G) 4. Arce L. 26. Mendoza M. 6. Quiroz L. 21. Meli A. 32. Abrego G. 25. Poggi V. 11. Barrea D. 31. Auzmendi A. 27. Andino S. 41. Altamira F.
Substitutes
47. Alysson 9. Amuzu F. 77. Andre Henrique 16. Aravena A. 15. Camilo Reijers 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 34. Igor Serrote 2. Joao Lucas 36. Luan Candido 14. Nathan 44. Viery 4. Walter Kannemann	77. Dupuy L. 15. Facello F. 19. Funes M. 5. Leyes B. 3. Moran J. 35. Pascual L. 50. Perez J. 10. Pozzo T. A. 23. Rasmussen F. 40. Salinas E. (G) 8. Valverde A. 24. Yanez B.
Coaches
Mano Menezes	Solari E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Joao Pedro ⚽,
20', Arce L. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Andino S. ⚽,
36', Dodi 🟨,
41', Joao Pedro ↓, Igor Serrote ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Arezo M. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
50', Igor Serrote ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
63', Barrea D. ↓, Dupuy L. ↑,
74', Auzmendi A. ↓, Leyes B. ↑,
75', Quiroz L. ↓, Rasmussen F. ↑,
75', Altamira F. ↓, Yanez B. ↑,
79', Dodi ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
79', Olivera C. ↓, Alysson ↑,
79', Andre Henrique 🟨,
85', Andino S. ↓, Valverde A. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Godoy Cruz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Grêmio is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Grêmio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Atlético Grau - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Grêmio - Santos	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	CS Alagoano - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTWLT
- Godoy Cruz
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Godoy Cruz	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.25	Deportivo Riestra - Godoy Cruz	3:0 ✺
28.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Atlético Tucumán	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Grêmio	2:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.04.25	San Martín de San Juan - Godoy Cruz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Grêmio	2:2
Copa Libertadores
09.08.17	Grêmio - Godoy Cruz	2:1
04.07.17	Godoy Cruz - Grêmio	0:1

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