Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Atlético Grau		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.7	1.67	Watch
	4.8	3.5	1.71
	5	3.6	1.68	Watch
	5.68	3.58	1.68
	5.38	3.55	1.72	Watch
	4.8	3.3	1.73	Watch
	5.45	3.52	1.69	Watch
	5	3.6	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.17 ↑ (4.21)	3.54 ↑ (3.38)	1.7 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Grau
18.2%

Draw
26.5%

Grêmio
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

27.7%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

26.8%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Grau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	42.9%	57.1%

Atlético Grau - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Grêmio (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Grêmio will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alvarez P. (G) 16. F. Rojas 27. Tapia R. 13. Franco D. 14. Bolivar J. 15. Rostaing J. 8. Soto D. 5. Guarderas R. 25. Vilca R. 9. Sandoval T. 11. Bandiera N.	1. Tiago Volpi (G) 34. Igor Serrote 21. Jemerson 3. Wagner Leonardo 25. Lucas Esteves 6. Cuellar G. 15. Camilo Reijers 36. Luan Candido 10. Cristaldo F. (C) 47. Alysson 19. Arezo M.
Substitutes
26. Flores A. 12. Fuentes A. (G) 29. Garcia B. 22. Herrera Joel 24. Olivares C. 17. Reyes J. 21. Reynoso A. (G) 6. Rodas E. 28. Solis A. 18. Trelles A. 20. Vasquez A. 30. Vasquez E.	77. Andre Henrique 58. Bernardo Zortea 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 40. Jardiel 2. Joao Lucas 11. Monsalve M. 14. Nathan 99. Olivera C. 35. Ronald 24. Thiago Beltrame (G) 44. Viery 4. Walter Kannemann
Coaches
Comizzo A.	Mano Menezes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', F. Rojas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Luan Candido ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
62', Cristaldo F. ↓, Monsalve M. ↑,
62', Cuellar G. ↓, Ronald ↑,
70', Sandoval T. ↓, Olivares C. ↑,
74', Alysson ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
77', Bandiera N. ↓, Vasquez A. ↑,
81', F. Rojas ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
90', Vasquez A. 🟨,
90+5', Jemerson 🟨,

Preview

Grau has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Grêmio has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Grau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Grêmio is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Grau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1
02.05.25	Sport Huancayo - Atlético Grau	3:0 ✺
27.04.25	Atlético Grau - Sport Boys	3:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Atlético Grau - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
17.04.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Atlético Grau	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Grêmio - Atlético Grau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTTTL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Grêmio - Santos	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	CS Alagoano - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Grêmio	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.25	Grêmio - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Grêmio - Atlético Grau	2:0

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