Match Info

Gaucho - Round 3

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Grêmio		São Luiz

	1	X	2
	1.13	8	17	Watch
	1.12	7.1	18.5	Watch
	1.2	5.56	17.62	Watch
	1.13	6.5	19
	1.13	8.02	16.2	Watch
	1.13	7	18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.14 ↓ (1.27)	7.03 ↑ (4.9)	17.72 ↑ (10.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
81.5%

Draw
13.2%

São Luiz
5.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.3%

18.8%

8.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio's performance.

São Luiz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Grêmio - São Luiz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Grêmio (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Grando (G) 14. Marcos Rocha (C) 53. Gustavo Martins 3. Wagner Leonardo 23. Marlon 39. Tiago 29. Arthur Melo 10. Cristaldo F. 21. Tete 9. Amuzu F. 95. Carlos Vinicius	1. Gabriel Oliveira (G) 22. Thainler 3. Marcao 4. Heitor (C) 6. Marcio Duarte 5. Escuro 8. Araujo 7. Denis Germano 25. Vidmar 11. DG 19. Thiago Santos
Substitutes
77. Andre Henrique 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 8. Edenilson 99. Enamorado J. 40. Jefinho 18. Joao Pedro 43. Luis Eduardo 31. Menegon G. 19. Noriega E. 47. Roger 88. Willian	21. Eduardo 18. Felipe Rangel 14. Gabriel Santiago 16. Higor 2. Lucas Hian 15. Lucas Hulk 12. Prezzi (G) 23. Valber Junior 17. Victor Jesus 20. Weverson
Coaches
Castro L.	Marques P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Thainler (Own goal),
16', 2 - 0, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Cristaldo F. (A),
32', 3 - 0, Gabriel Oliveira (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Marcio Duarte ↓, Higor ↑,
46', DG ↓, Lucas Hulk ↑,
46', Denis Germano ↓, Victor Jesus ↑,
46', Gustavo Martins ↓, Noriega E. ↑,
46', Marlon ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
46', Tete ↓, Roger ↑,
46', Amuzu F. ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
54', Thiago Santos 🟨,
55', 4 - 0, Cristaldo F. ⚽, Enamorado J. (A),
56', Cristaldo F. ↓, Willian ↑,
63', Escuro ↓, Gabriel Santiago ↑,
66', 5 - 0, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Willian (A),
75', Thiago Santos ↓, Felipe Rangel ↑,
77', Caio Paulista 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.

Recent performances by Grêmio have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In this match, Grêmio is the obvious favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:8. (average 2.1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:3. (average 3.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
14.01.26	Grêmio - EC São José Porto Alegre	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Avenida - Grêmio	0:4 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Sport Recife - Grêmio	0:4 ✺
02.12.25	Grêmio - Fluminense	1:2 ✺
25.11.25	Grêmio - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWWLW
- EC São Luiz
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
14.01.26	Inter Santa Maria - São Luiz	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
27.07.25	Azuriz - São Luiz	0:0 ✺
19.07.25	São Luiz - Barra Santa Catarina	0:2 ✺
13.07.25	Guarany de Bagé - São Luiz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
01.02.25	Grêmio - São Luiz	5:0
Brazilian Recopa Gaucho
28.02.24	São Luiz - Grêmio	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
10.02.24	Grêmio - São Luiz	1:1
18.02.23	São Luiz - Grêmio	0:0
19.02.22	Grêmio - São Luiz	4:0
31.03.21	São Luiz - Grêmio	2:2
15.03.20	Grêmio - São Luiz	3:2

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