Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 38

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sport Recife		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.7	3.7	1.88
	3.96	3.7	2
	4.45	3.8	1.77	Watch
	3.5	3.4	1.95
	3.88	3.68	1.99	Watch
	4	3.66	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.9 ↓ (4.22)	3.65 ↓ (3.92)	1.91 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
24.4%

Draw
26%

Grêmio
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

24.1%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

24.2%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	23.1%	61.5%

Sport Recife - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Grêmio will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Grêmio (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Caique Franca (G) 33. Matheus Alexandre 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 36. Luan Candido 16. Igor Carius 21. Lucas Kal 28. Pedro Augusto 10. Lucas Lima 17. Matheusinho 11. Romarinho 7. Paciencia G.	12. Gabriel Grando (G) 14. Marcos Rocha (C) 53. Gustavo Martins 3. Wagner Leonardo 23. Marlon 8. Edenilson 6. Cuellar G. 10. Cristaldo F. 9. Amuzu F. 47. Alysson 95. Carlos Vinicius
Substitutes
13. Aderlan 42. Adriano Sousa (G) 20. Atencio R. 30. Chrystian Barletta 32. Hereda 3. Kevyson 38. Leo Pereira 61. Luiz Henrique 27. Oliveira S. 53. Rafinha 9. Ramirez I. 6. Silva J.	77. Andre Henrique 16. Aravena A. 15. Camilo Reijers 2. Joao Lucas 31. Jorge (G) 25. Lucas Esteves 43. Luis Eduardo 7. Pavon C. 39. Tiago 44. Viery 4. Walter Kannemann 88. Willian
Coaches
Lucena C.	Mano Menezes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
18', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
21', Alysson 🟨,
28', Igor Carius ↓, Silva J. ↑,
29', 0 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Cristaldo F. (A),
31', 0 - 2, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Edenilson (A),
40', Alysson ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
42', 0 - 3, Gustavo Martins ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
45+1', Amuzu F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Matheusinho ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
46', Luan Candido ↓, Rafinha ↑,
47', Amuzu F. ↓, Willian ↑,
48', 0 - 4, Cristaldo F. ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
60', Romarinho ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
60', Paciencia G. ↓, Oliveira S. ↑,
66', Edenilson ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
66', Marlon ↓, Lucas Esteves ↑,
76', Cuellar G. 🟨,
77', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
80', Camilo Reijers 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

Recife is Relegated to Serie B Superbet

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3.

Recife is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Grêmio has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recife may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Grêmio is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Derik Lacerda (Inactive) Rivera C. (Yellow Cards) Ze Lucas (International duty) Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Arthur Melo (Yellow Cards) Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Dodi (Yellow Cards) Fabian Balbuena (Ankle Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Olivera C. (Ankle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Gomes do Nascimento A. (Injury) Hyoran (Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Monsalve M. (Inactive)

We predict that Grêmio will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Recife won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:28. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:9. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
03.12.25	Bahia - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Santos - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
23.11.25	Sport Recife - Vitória Salvador	1:3 ✺
18.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Sport Recife	3:2 ✺
15.11.25	Sport Recife - Flamengo	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
02.12.25	Grêmio - Fluminense	1:2 ✺
25.11.25	Grêmio - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
22.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
19.11.25	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Fortaleza - Grêmio	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
10.08.25	Grêmio - Sport Recife	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
20.09.22	Grêmio - Sport Recife	3:0
13.06.22	Sport Recife - Grêmio	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
03.10.21	Grêmio - Sport Recife	1:2
17.06.21	Sport Recife - Grêmio	1:0
19.12.20	Sport Recife - Grêmio	1:1
03.09.20	Grêmio - Sport Recife	1:2

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