Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA - ROUND 12

Date: 10 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Portuguesa

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.33	8.5	Watch
	1.4	4.33	8
	1.38	4.33	8.5	Watch
	1.38	4.6	8.94
	1.38	4.61	8.94
	1.3	4.4	8.5
	1.36	4.4	8.55
	1.36	4.2	7.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.69)	4.4 ↑ (3.53)	8.47 ↑ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
67.9%

Draw
21.1%

Portuguesa
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

26.5%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

25.1%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio Novorizontino's performance.

Portuguesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Portuguesa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio Novorizontino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portuguesa than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portuguesa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Grêmio Novorizontino - Portuguesa Predictions

Users Predictions: Grêmio Novorizontino will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 25. Luisao 33. Renato 44. Chico 22. Raul Prata 77. Fabricio Daniel 28. Marlon 14. Danilo Barcelos 30. Waguininho 9. Neto Pessoa 10. Romulo	1. Thomazella (G) 3. Marco Antonio 4. Robson 5. Patrick 2. Douglas Borel 8. Ricardinho 7. Ze Ricardo 6. da Silva Ferreira P. H. 11. Leandro P. B. 9. Henrique Dourado 10. Victor Andrade
Substitutes
1. Airton (G) 37. Cesar Martins 26. Dantas 56. Enzo 5. Geovane 91. Jenison 21. Joao Afonso 11. Lucca 75. Paulo V. 3. Rafael Donato 16. Reverson 7. Rodolfo	23. Chrigor 17. Denis 16. Diogo Silva 21. Felipe Marques 13. Gustavo Talles 19. Luccas Paraizo 14. Marquinhos Pedroso 15. Quintana Y. 12. Rafael Pascoal (G) 18. Renan 24. Renan Gorne 20. Rone
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Pintado

Preview

Portuguesa is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Novorizontino is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Portuguesa is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Portuguesa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Portuguesa have a series of home games.

In this match Novorizontino is absolute favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
03.03.24	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
24.02.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Água Santa	1:0 ✺
18.02.24	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
15.02.24	Internacional de Limeira - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:1 ✺
12.02.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 TWWLW
- Portuguesa SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.03.24	Portuguesa - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
28.02.24	Portuguesa - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
25.02.24	Botafogo SP - Portuguesa	2:1 ✺
18.02.24	Portuguesa - Guarani	1:0 ✺
15.02.24	Portuguesa - Água Santa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLLWT

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