Match Info

Paulista - Round 5

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio do Caninde (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Portuguesa		Guarani

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.25	4.75	Watch
	1.8	3.2	4.65
	1.86	3.18	4.99
	1.8	3.34	4.79	Watch
	1.8	2.9	4.6
	1.78	3.08	4.7
	1.81	3.33	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.14)	3.18 ↑ (2.96)	4.75 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Portuguesa
51.3%

Draw
29.2%

Guarani
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

31%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portuguesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portuguesa's performance.

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guarani might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	10%	30%

Portuguesa - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Portuguesa will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Guarani will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portuguesa: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Portuguesa (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bruno Bertinato (G) 2. Joao Vitor 3. Gustavo Henrique 4. Eduardo Biazus 17. Caio Roque 20. Guilherme Portuga 8. Ze Vitor 10. Gabriel Pires (C) 7. Ewerthon 19. Maceio 9. Matheus Cadorini	1. Caique Franca (G) 3. Raphael 13. Mauricio Antonio 4. Jonathan Costa 6. Emerson Barbosa 5. Willian Farias (C) 8. Nathan Melo 10. Isaque 7. Guilherme Parede 11. Mirandinha 9. Maranhao
Substitutes
39. Carlos Eduardo 11. Cauari 27. Denis 33. Eric Botteghin 42. Gustavo Sciencia 13. Igor Torres 12. Joao Paulo (G) 30. Kaue 77. Keven 91. Lohan 14. Marcelo Freitas 25. Matheus Cecchini	2. Cicinho 17. Dentinho 20. Diego Torres 22. Fabricio Dias 18. Guilherme Cachoeira 21. Kaua Jesus 23. Kewen 19. Lucca 12. Mateus Claus (G) 15. Povoa M. 14. Ralf 16. Renan Castro
Coaches
Fabio Matias	Matheus Costa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Gustavo Henrique 🟥,
33', Matheus Cadorini ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Raphael ↓, Cicinho ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Jonathan Costa ⚽,
71', Guilherme Parede ↓, Dentinho ↑,
72', Isaque ↓, Kaua Jesus ↑,
74', Ewerthon ↓, Igor Torres ↑,
75', Ze Vitor ↓, Denis ↑,
80', Mirandinha ↓, Lucca ↑,
85', Guilherme Dantas ↓, Marcelo Freitas ↑,
85', Gabriel Pires ↓, Keven ↑,
88', Nathan Melo ↓, Ralf ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 11).

Portuguesa could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Portuguesa: Lucas Hipolito (Inactive) Rene (Red Card)

There will not play in Guarani: Igor Pereira (Injury) Rian (Inactive)

There are questionable in Portuguesa: Gustavo Salomao (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Portuguesa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Portuguesa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Guarani - the odds 3.53 are the expected chance of winning is 25.98%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.26	São Paulo - Portuguesa	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Portuguesa - Velo Clube	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Capivariano - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Portuguesa - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
09.08.25	Portuguesa - Mixto	1:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLLL
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.01.26	Velo Clube - Guarani	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Guarani - Santos	1:1 ✺
13.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Guarani - EC Primavera	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
11.10.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.02.24	Portuguesa - Guarani	1:0
10.03.23	Guarani - Portuguesa	2:1
08.02.23	Guarani - Portuguesa	2:1

Portuguesa - Guarani: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide