Match Info

Paulista - Round 1

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio do Caninde (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, HBO Max, PlayPlus, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Portuguesa		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.5	1.65	Watch
	5.15	3.4	1.7
	5.58	3.6	1.65	Watch
	5	3.4	1.62
	5.29	3.34	1.64
	5.75	3.4	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.42 ↓ (6.89)	3.44 ↓ (3.63)	1.66 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portuguesa
17.1%

Draw
27%

Palmeiras
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.6%

25.7%

60.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portuguesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Portuguesa - Palmeiras Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bruno Bertinato (G) 2. Joao Vitor 3. Gustavo Henrique 4. Eduardo Biazus 6. Gustavo Salomao 5. Hudson 8. Ze Vitor 10. Gabriel Pires (C) 15. Igor Torres 19. Maceio 21. Rene	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 43. Benedetti 26. Murilo (C) 6. Jefte 18. Mauricio 48. Larson 40. Allan 19. Sosa R. 27. Marlon Freitas 31. Luighi
Substitutes
13. Botteghin E. 17. Caio Roque 14. Carlos Eduardo 18. Denis 7. Ewerthon 23. Gustavo Sciencia 12. Joao Paulo (G) 16. Keven 91. Lohan 9. Matheus Cadorini 25. Muller Cecchini M.	3. Bruno Fuchs 11. Bruno Rodrigues 45. Erick Bele 12. Khellven 50. Luis Felipe 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 8. Pereira A. 37. Riquelme Fillipi 21. Weverton (G)
Coaches
Fabio Matias	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Gustavo Salomao 🟨,
39', Murilo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Murilo ↓, Bruno Fuchs ↑,
46', Allan ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
46', Jefte ↓, Khellven ↑,
51', Igor Torres 🟥,
53', 0 - 1, Luighi ⚽, Mauricio (A),
57', Gabriel Pires ↓, Guilherme Portuga ↑,
65', Larson ↓, Erick Bele ↑,
73', Eduardo Biazus 🟨,
76', Hudson 🟨,
79', Rene ↓, Ewerthon ↑,
79', Hudson ↓, Muller Cecchini M. ↑,
81', Luighi ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
83', Ze Vitor ↓, Keven ↑,
83', Maceio ↓, Lohan ↑,
90+2', Benedetti 🟨,
90+4', Guilherme Portuga 🟨,

Preview

Palmeiras has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Palmeiras is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson (Injury) Lucas Evangelista (Hamstring Injury) Martinez E. (Rest) Paulinho (Leg Injury) Vitinho (Inactive) Weverton (Finger Injury)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Larson (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portuguesa won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Portuguesa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 60.69%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa SP
Brazilian Serie D
09.08.25	Portuguesa - Mixto	1:1 penalties ✺
02.08.25	Mixto - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Portuguesa - Boavista	3:0 ✺
19.07.25	Maricá - Portuguesa	0:1 ✺
12.07.25	Portuguesa - Água Santa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWWW
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Ceará - Palmeiras	1:3 ✺
03.12.25	Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.11.25	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.11.25	Grêmio - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
22.11.25	Palmeiras - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.01.25	Palmeiras - Portuguesa	2:0
28.02.24	Portuguesa - Palmeiras	0:2
06.03.14	Palmeiras - Portuguesa	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
29.08.12	Portuguesa - Palmeiras	3:0
19.05.12	Palmeiras - Portuguesa	1:1

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