Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 36

Date: 14 November 2023, Tuesday


	Guarani		Criciúma

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.5	2.85	2.85
	2.65	2.9	2.9	Watch
	2.74	2.96	3.02
	2.76	2.98	2.99
	2.5	3	2.75
	2.55	3.04	2.94
	2.55	2.95	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.22)	2.95 ↓ (3.13)	2.91 ↓ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani
36%

Draw
31.8%

Criciúma
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

30.2%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

30.4%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Guarani's form might have worsened.

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Criciúma's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guarani, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Criciúma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	33.3%	23.8%

Guarani - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Guarani will win (votes: 9 - 42.9%). Criciúma will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guarani: 21.7% – 64.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pegorari (G) 13. Diogo Mateus (C) 14. Ivan Alvarino 3. Lucao 6. Mayk 18. Matheus Bueno 23. Wenderson 27. Bruninho 19. Joao Victor 11. Derek 37. Iago Teles	1. Gustavo (G) 13. Jonathan 3. Rodrigo (C) 33. Walisson 22. Marcelo Hermes 88. Barreto 8. Arilson 27. Claudinho 7. Fellipe Mateus 23. Eder 31. Hygor
Substitutes
28. Bernardo 9. Bruno Mendes 36. Caique 31. Douglas Borges (G) 33. Gustavo Franca 26. Lucas Adell 21. Lucas Araujo 20. Lucas Silva 7. Pablo Thomaz 78. Regis 8. Robinho 34. Walber	25. Alisson (G) 2. Cristovam 11. Fabinho 9. Felipe Vizeu 6. Helder Santos 21. Joao Carlos 5. Leo Costa 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 42. Miqueias 4. Rayan 17. Romulo
Coaches
Louzer U.	Tencati C.

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Guarani is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Criciúma is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Criciúma could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Criciúma have a series of home games.

Guarani will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Criciúma: Tony (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Guarani won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Guarani won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
03.11.23	Londrina - Guarani	0:0 ✺
27.10.23	Guarani - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
20.10.23	Mirassol - Guarani	0:0 ✺
15.10.23	Vitória Salvador - Guarani	2:0 ✺
07.10.23	Guarani - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLTLT
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
07.11.23	Criciúma - ABC	1:0 ✺
28.10.23	Criciúma - Sampaio Corrêa	3:0 ✺
21.10.23	CRB Maceio - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
13.10.23	Criciúma - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
08.10.23	Criciúma - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
13.07.23	Criciúma - Guarani	1:1
10.08.22	Criciúma - Guarani	0:0
27.04.22	Guarani - Criciúma	1:0

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