Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 9

Date: 13 February 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Nosso Futebol+, UOL Play, Zapping
Usa	Fanatiz


	Guarani		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	3.3	2.88	2.45	Watch
	3.1	2.7	2.4	Watch
	3.47	2.88	2.41
	3.33	2.82	2.44	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.3
	3.34	2.91	2.48	Watch
	3.1	2.7	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (2.95)	2.81 ↓ (2.86)	2.41 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani
28.6%

Draw
33%

Grêmio Novorizontino
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

32.3%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

32%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	87.5%	12.5%

Guarani - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 2. Mateus Sarara 3. Raphael 4. Titi 6. Emerson 5. Nathan Camargo 8. Anderson Leite (C) 7. Luiz Miguel 10. Joao Victor 11. Isaque 9. Deni Junior	1. Airton (G) 26. Dantas 3. Rafael Donato (C) 4. Patrick 2. Rodrigo Soares 6. Luis Oyama 5. Jean Irmer 30. Waguininho 47. Fabio Matheus 11. Robson 7. Pablo Dyego
Substitutes
13. Caio Dias 18. Caio Mello 15. Daniel 12. Fred Conte (G) 20. Giva 19. Joao Marcelo 17. Nascimento R. 14. Pedro Manoel 23. Rafael Bilu 16. Vinicius Kaue 22. Yan Henrique 21. Yuji	20. Airton 17. Bruno Jose 93. Jordi (G) 38. Leo Natel 28. Marlon 10. Matheus Frizzo 99. Nathan Fogaca 88. Patrick Brey 33. Renato 16. Reverson 22. Ruiz O. 8. Willian Farias
Coaches
Mauricio Souza	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Luiz Miguel ↓, Caio Mello ↑,
46', Isaque ↓, Joao Marcelo ↑,
46', Luis Oyama ↓, Marlon ↑,
46', Fabio Matheus ↓, Patrick Brey ↑,
46', Rodrigo Soares ↓, Matheus Frizzo ↑,
55', Patrick 🟨,
66', Patrick Brey 🟨,
72', Mateus Sarara ↓, Yan Henrique ↑,
79', Pablo Dyego ↓, Leo Natel ↑,
81', Nathan Camargo ↓, Daniel ↑,
86', Waguininho ↓, Bruno Jose ↑,
88', Joao Victor ↓, Nascimento R. ↑,
88', Anderson Leite 🟨,
89', Dantas 🟨,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 and 5).

Recent matches Milwaukee is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Springfield is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Milwaukee could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Springfield have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Milwaukee won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Milwaukee won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.02.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	2:0 ✺
06.02.25	Guarani - Água Santa	4:0 ✺
02.02.25	Guarani - Palmeiras	1:4 ✺
29.01.25	Mirassol - Guarani	3:2 ✺
26.01.25	Guarani - EC Noroeste	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLLW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	0:0 ✺
06.02.25	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
03.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
31.01.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
28.01.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Velo Clube	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
29.10.24	Guarani - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2
13.07.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
12.02.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
30.09.23	Guarani - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1
07.06.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	1:0
20.09.22	Guarani - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0
12.06.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	1:2

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