Match Info

Paulista - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	3.9	3	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3	2.35
	3.7	2.98	2.1	Watch
	3.71	3.1	2.21
	3.9	3.02	2.1	Watch
	3.5	2.8	2.1
	3.6	2.88	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.63 ↑ (3.18)	2.97 ↑ (2.96)	2.16 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
25.6%

Draw
31.3%

Corinthians
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

30.7%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

30.1%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 25. Dantas 4. Patrick 77. Mayk 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 16. Vinicius Paiva 10. Romulo 17. Matheus Bianqui 11. Robson (C)	1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique (C) 21. Matheus Bidu 7. Breno Bidon 14. Raniele 8. Garro R. 29. Allan 49. Andre 10. Depay M.
Substitutes
90. Caio Dantas 20. Castrillon N. 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 14. Eduardo Brock 26. Gabriel Bahia 40. Jardiel 50. Juninho 24. Lora J. 30. Nicolas Careca 8. Ortiz C. 15. Tavinho	5. Andre Ramalho 26. Angileri F. 19. Carrillo A. 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 56. Gui Negao 4. Joao Pedro 51. Kaue (G) 31. Kayke 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 11. Vitinho
Coaches
Moreira E.	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Matheuzinho 🟨,
33', Matheus Bianqui 🟨,
43', Allan 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Matheus Bianqui ↓, Castrillon N. ↑,
61', Raniele ↓, Vitinho ↑,
63', Breno Bidon 🟨,
64', Dantas 🟨,
69', Castrillon N. 🟨,
74', 1 - 0, Mayk ⚽, Robson (A),
81', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Tavinho ↑,
82', Breno Bidon ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
82', Garro R. ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
86', Andre 🟨,
89', Andre ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
89', Allan ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
90', Romulo ↓, Juninho ↑,
90', Mayk ↓, Eduardo Brock ↑,
90+7', 🟨,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Novorizontino is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 1.

Novorizontino is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Corinthians is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Corinthians has had a series of away games.

Corinthians could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Helio Borges (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Corinthians: Hugo (Injury) Kaio Cesar (Injury) Pereira M. (Injury) Yuri Alberto (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 0.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Nacional AM	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:0 ✺
07.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
02.02.26	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWLWT
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.02.26	Portuguesa - Corinthians	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	São Bernardo - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Corinthians - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Corinthians - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
30.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
03.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	0:1
04.02.24	Corinthians - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3
20.03.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	0:1
09.05.21	Corinthians - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1
07.03.20	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	1:1

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