Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 6

Date: 2 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Referee: Araujo V. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Brasileirao Play, Caze TV, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
Portugal	Canal 11
Usa	Fanatiz


	Guarani		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	7	3.7	1.53	Watch
	6	3.9	1.53
				Watch
	6	3.7	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.33 ↑ (4.75)	3.77 ↑ (3.5)	1.53 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani
14.7%

Draw
24.7%

Palmeiras
60.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.7%

26.8%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.9%

25.7%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Guarani - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Guarani will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 6. Emerson 10. Geovane 9. Joao Marcelo 11. Joao Victor 2. Lucas Justen 7. Luiz Miguel 8. Mateus Sarara 5. Nathan Camargo 3. Raphael (C) 4. Titi	21. Weverton (G) 41. Estevao 15. Gustavo Gomez (C) 2. Marcos Rocha 18. Mauricio 5. Moreno A. 26. Murilo 23. Raphael Veiga 27. Rios R. 17. Torres F. 6. Vanderlan
Substitutes
18. Caio Dias 19. Denilson 21. Eliseu Manuel 12. Emerson Junior (G) 25. Fred Conte (G) 20. Leo Porfirio 14. Lucao 13. Marcio Silva 17. Rafael Bilu 22. Raphael C. 16. Vinicius Kaue	40. Allan 43. Benedetti 35. Fabinho 38. Figueiredo 42. Flaco Lopez 4. Giay A. 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 12. Mayke 34. Naves 22. Piquerez J. 39. Thalys
Coaches
Mauricio Souza	Ferreira A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Rios R. ⚽, Raphael Veiga (A),
13', 0 - 2, Mauricio ⚽, Raphael Veiga (A),
27', Vanderlan 🟨,
28', Emerson 🟨,
40', Geovane ↓, Vinicius Kaue ↑,
40', Moreno A. 🟨,
45+2', Mateus Sarara 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 0 - 3, Estevao ⚽, Raphael Veiga (A),
59', Moreno A. ↓, Fabinho ↑,
59', Vanderlan ↓, Piquerez J. ↑,
60', Titi ↓, Lucao ↑,
60', Luiz Miguel ↓, Denilson ↑,
60', Joao Victor ↓, Rafael Bilu ↑,
65', 1 - 3, Denilson ⚽,
72', Mauricio ↓, Thalys ↑,
78', Marcos Rocha ↓, Mayke ↑,
78', Raphael Veiga ↓, Naves ↑,
84', Mateus Sarara ↓, Leo Porfirio ↑,
86', 1 - 4, Estevao ⚽, Piquerez J. (A),

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Palmeiras could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Palmeiras is absolute favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Guarani won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.3:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Guarani won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
29.01.25	Mirassol - Guarani	3:2 ✺
26.01.25	Guarani - EC Noroeste	2:0 ✺
23.01.25	São Paulo - Guarani	1:0 ✺
18.01.25	Internacional de Limeira - Guarani	0:0 ✺
15.01.25	Guarani - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLTW
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
28.01.25	Palmeiras - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
25.01.25	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
22.01.25	Santos - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
18.01.25	EC Noroeste - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
15.01.25	Palmeiras - Portuguesa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
05.03.23	Guarani - Palmeiras	0:0
06.03.22	Palmeiras - Guarani	2:0
23.04.21	Guarani - Palmeiras	1:2

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