Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA - ROUND 12

Date: 10 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Referee: Rodrigues de Souza F. (Bra)


	Guarani		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.55	3.3	2.65
	2.55	3.25	2.7	Watch
	2.6	3.37	2.76
	2.6	3.37	2.76
	2.4	3.25	2.6
	2.53	3.24	2.62
	2.55	3.1	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (3.62)	3.25 ↓ (3.32)	2.67 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani
36.4%

Draw
28.7%

Red Bull Bragantino
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.9%

28.2%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

27.8%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guarani's performance.

Red Bull Bragantino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Red Bull Bragantino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guarani that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Red Bull Bragantino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Guarani - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
89. Vladimir (G) 13. Diogo Mateus (C) 4. Rayan 3. Leo Santos 16. Helder Santos 33. Gustavo Franca 18. Matheus Bueno 12. Lucas Adell 20. Reinaldo 7. Pablo Thomaz 78. Regis	40. Lucao (G) 34. Andres Hurtado 2. Realpe L. 39. Douglas Mendes 31. Guilherme Lopes 23. Raul (C) 22. Gustavinho 33. Laquintana I. 28. Vitinho 21. Talisson 17. Bruninho
Substitutes
30. Airton 10. Chay 31. Douglas Borges (G) 27. Gabriel Santos 2. Heitor 37. Iago Teles 19. Joao Victor 21. Lucas Araujo 8. Marlon Douglas 15. Pedro Henrique 26. Rafael Freitas 25. Witinho	13. Alexandre C. 37. Fabricio (G) 44. Filipe 15. Gabriel Caetano 20. Isac 38. Kevyn 27. Leles Y. 14. Lima R. 16. Rai 46. Tilapia J.
Coaches
Claudinei Oliveira	Caixinha P.

Preview

RB Bragantino is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Guarani is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches RB Bragantino is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

RB Bragantino could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently RB Bragantino have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Guarani won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Guarani won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.03.24	Botafogo SP - Guarani	1:1 ✺
25.02.24	Guarani - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
18.02.24	Portuguesa - Guarani	1:0 ✺
15.02.24	Guarani - Santo André	2:2 ✺
12.02.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTLTL
- Red Bull Bragantino
Copa Libertadores
06.03.24	Botafogo RJ - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
03.03.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Santos	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.02.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Rionegro Águilas	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.02.24	Ituano - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.02.24	Rionegro Águilas - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
04.02.23	Guarani - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1
31.01.22	Red Bull Bragantino - Guarani	1:0
07.03.21	Guarani - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1

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