Match Info

Gaucho - Relegation - Round 5

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Estrela d'Alva (Bage)


	Guarany de Bagé		Avenida

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.3	5.25	Watch
				Watch
	1.85	3.27	4.48	Watch
	1.85	2.9	4
	1.78	3.04	4.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.9)	3.13 ↑ (3.06)	4.63 ↑ (4.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarany de Bagé
51.3%

Draw
29.1%

Avenida
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

30.3%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

30.4%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarany de Bagé has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Avenida has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avenida than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Guarany de Bagé - Avenida Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Thiago Goncalves (G) 22. Raphinha (C) 13. Alberte 15. Jean Martim 6. Vitor Oliveira 17. Marcao 11. Tony Junior 19. Paulinho Souza 8. Murilo 7. Marquinhos 10. Welder	1. Rodrigo Mama (G) 2. Cristian Lessa 3. Rodrigo Milanez 4. Matheus Santos 6. Vinicius Silva 8. Anderson Uchoa 5. Anderson Recife 7. Xandy 20. Ranisson 11. Adryel Itaqui 9. Wellisson
Substitutes
20. Adailson 16. Allan 18. Hiago Lucas 1. Jean Carlos (G) 14. Jean Carlos 9. Lucao 2. Talles	15. Edmilson 21. Emerson Junior 18. Emerson Tucao 14. Jo 22. Maicon (G) 19. Matheus Rodrigues 10. Ramirez J. 12. Ronaldo (G) 30. Tinga 23. Yuri 25. Ze Pedro
Coaches
Conte G.	Gabriel Dutra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Tony Junior ⚽, Murilo (A),
26', 1 - 1, Wellisson (Penalty Awarded),
27', Ramirez J. 🟨,
42', Paulinho Souza 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Anderson Uchoa 🟥,
61', Adryel Itaqui ↓, Emerson Tucao ↑,
64', Paulinho Souza ↓, Adailson ↑,
70', Jean Martim ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
80', Marquinhos ↓, Allan ↑,
80', Tony Junior ↓, Talles ↑,
86', Xandy ↓, Yuri ↑,
87', Wellisson ↓, Matheus Rodrigues ↑,
90+1', Rodrigo Mama 🟨,
90+2', Talles 🟨,

Preview

Guarany de Bagé is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Avenida has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Guarany de Bagé may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Guarany de Bagé might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guarany de Bagé won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home match between the teams, Guarany de Bagé won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarany de Bagé
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Caxias - Guarany de Bagé	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
21.02.26	Inter Santa Maria - Guarany de Bagé	0:1 ✺
16.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	3:2 ✺
09.02.26	Avenida - Guarany de Bagé	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 WWWLT
- EC Avenida
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
23.02.26	Monsoon - Avenida	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Avenida - Monsoon	1:1 ✺
09.02.26	Avenida - Guarany de Bagé	2:1 ✺
05.02.26	Inter Santa Maria - Avenida	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Inter Santa Maria - Avenida	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
09.02.26	Avenida - Guarany de Bagé	2:1
19.02.24	Avenida - Guarany de Bagé	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
21.11.21	Guarany de Bagé - Avenida	2:1
13.11.21	Avenida - Guarany de Bagé	1:1
27.09.21	Avenida - Guarany de Bagé	0:1

Guarany de Bagé - Avenida: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide