Match Info

BRAZIL: Sergipano - Round 9

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	IT tv Plus


	Guarany de Porto da Folha		Carmópolis

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.55	5.2
	1.61	3.4	5.2
	1.61	3.59	5.35
	1.57	3.65	5.32
	1.6	3.55	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.95)	3.55 ↑ (3.15)	5.25 ↑ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarany de Porto da Folha
57%

Draw
25.7%

Carmópolis
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

28.7%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

27.3%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarany de Porto da Folha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guarany de Porto da Folha's performance.

Carmópolis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carmópolis might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarany de Porto da Folha than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guarany de Porto da Folha that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carmópolis than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carmópolis could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Guarany de Porto da Folha - Carmópolis Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Joao Marcos ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 2 - 0, Alanderson ⚽,
86', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10 in the zone Sergipano (Relegation ~ Play Offs: )).

Carmópolis is Sergipano (Relegation ~ Play Offs )

Recent matches Guarany PF is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Carmópolis is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Guarany PF will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarany de Porto da Folha
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
22.02.25	Sergipe - Guarany de Porto da Folha	4:0 ✺
15.02.25	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Falcon	2:0 ✺
08.02.25	Dorense - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:2 ✺
02.02.25	América de Propriá - Guarany de Porto da Folha	3:0 ✺
22.01.25	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 LWWLT
- AD Carmópolis
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
22.02.25	Carmópolis - Lagarto	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Carmópolis - América de Propriá	1:1 ✺
10.02.25	Falcon - Carmópolis	3:2 ✺
03.02.25	Barra SE - Carmópolis	3:2 ✺
26.01.25	Carmópolis - Confiança	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TTLLL

Guarany de Porto da Folha - Carmópolis: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide