Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 8

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Pietro Barbetti (Gubbio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Gubbio		Pontedera

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.87	3.1	3.7
	1.62	3.55	5.15
	1.69	3.39	5.53
	1.77	3.19	5.13	Watch
	1.73	3.35	5.23	Watch
	1.89	3.2	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.02)	3.3 (3.3)	4.77 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gubbio
52.5%

Draw
28.1%

Pontedera
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

27.6%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

27.1%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gubbio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gubbio's performance.

Pontedera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pontedera might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gubbio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pontedera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Gubbio - Pontedera Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Gubbio will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gubbio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Gubbio (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gubbio (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bagnolini N. (G) 23. Bruscagin M. 15. Signorini A. 5. Di Bitonto A. 34. Zallu F. 21. Carraro F. 8. Rosaia G. 3. Tentardini A. 44. Hraiech S. 9. Tommasini C. 19. La Mantia A.	22. Biagini V. (G) 19. Pretato M. 5. Corradini F. 3. Vona E. 21. Perretta G. 10. Ladinetti R. 14. Manfredonia M. 24. Bassanini R. 13. Scaccabarozzi J. 11. Ianesi S. 17. Vitali P.
Substitutes
4. Baroncelli L. 78. Conti V. 82. Djankpata H. 17. Fazzi N. 73. Ghirardello T. 12. Krapikas T. (G) 77. Minta A. 80. Niang O. 27. Podda L. 28. Spina M. 56. Tomasella M. (G)	29. Andolfi T. 33. Battimelli G. 32. Beghetto L. 27. Coviello A. 8. Faggi F. 6. Gueye O. 4. Milazzo S. 25. Nabian H. 18. Paolieri L. 20. Pietrelli R. 16. Polizzi M. 30. Strada N. (G) 26. Tempre M. 1. Vannucchi T. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', 0 - 1, Zallu F. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rosaia G. ↓, Spina M. ↑,
47', Vona E. 🟨,
55', Corradini F. 🟨,
66', Ianesi S. ↓, Nabian H. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Carraro F. ⚽,
73', La Mantia A. ↓, Ghirardello T. ↑,
73', Zallu F. ↓, Niang O. ↑,
75', Signorini A. 🟨,
77', Ladinetti R. 🟨,
82', Hraiech S. ↓, Djankpata H. ↑,
84', Bassanini R. ↓, Polizzi M. ↑,
85', Pretato M. 🟨,
88', Tentardini A. ↓, Podda L. ↑,
90+5', Perretta G. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gubbio won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Gubbio is a strong favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Gubbio won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gubbio won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Pontedera - the odds 3.35 are the expected chance of winning is 27.22%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
27.09.25	Vis Pesaro - Gubbio	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Campobasso - Gubbio	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Gubbio - Bra	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Forlì - Gubbio	0:1 ✺
06.09.25	Gubbio - Perugia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLWWT
- US Pontedera
Italian Serie C Group B
27.09.25	Pontedera - Forlì	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Ternana - Pontedera	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Pontedera - Campobasso	0:4 ✺
13.09.25	Pontedera - Rimini	2:1 ✺
07.09.25	Pineto - Pontedera	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
01.03.25	Pontedera - Gubbio	2:1
20.10.24	Gubbio - Pontedera	0:1
14.04.24	Gubbio - Pontedera	0:0
09.12.23	Pontedera - Gubbio	2:1
Italian Serie C Group A
14.05.23	Gubbio - Pontedera	1:1
Italian Serie C Group B
23.04.23	Pontedera - Gubbio	1:1
17.12.22	Gubbio - Pontedera	1:0

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