Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 16

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday


	Guiseley		Hednesford Town

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.3	2.58
	2.25	3.89	2.66	Watch
	2.54	3.74	2.44
	2.33	3.5	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.25)	3.61 ↓ (3.89)	2.59 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guiseley
38.8%

Draw
25.6%

Hednesford Town
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

23.9%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

23%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guiseley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Hednesford Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guiseley than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Guiseley - Hednesford Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
1', 0 - 1, ⚽,
4', 0 - 2, McHale D. ⚽,
24', 0 - 3, Hylton J. (Pen),
45+1', 0 - 4, Hylton J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 0 - 5, Gibson M. ⚽,
74', 1 - 5, Thewlis J. ⚽,
85', Lufudu J. 🟥,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Guiseley is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hednesford has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Hednesford has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Guiseley won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Guiseley won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guiseley
English FA Trophy
25.10.25	Prescot Cables - Guiseley	2:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
18.10.25	Warrington Town - Guiseley	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Guiseley - Ilkeston	1:4 ✺
07.10.25	Guiseley - Warrington Rylands	0:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Bridlington Town - Guiseley	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW
- Hednesford Town
English NPL Premier Division
28.10.25	Hednesford Town - Stockton Town	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Lancaster City - Hednesford Town	0:0 ✺
14.10.25	Whitby Town - Hednesford Town	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Harborough Town - Hednesford Town	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
30.09.25	Billericay Town - Hednesford Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
14.02.15	Guiseley - Hednesford Town	0:2
13.09.14	Hednesford Town - Guiseley	1:1
12.04.14	Hednesford Town - Guiseley	3:2
21.09.13	Guiseley - Hednesford Town	1:2

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