Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday


	Hednesford Town		Stockton Town

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.45	3.65
	1.68	3.83	4.22
	1.71	4.06	4.22	Watch
	1.85	3.3	3.5
	1.84	3.5	3.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.77)	3.63 ↑ (3.6)	3.86 ↑ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hednesford Town
51.2%

Draw
25.1%

Stockton Town
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

25.2%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

23.7%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Hednesford Town have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Stockton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stockton Town than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Hednesford Town - Stockton Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', Purewal A. 🟥,
43', 1 - 0, Gibson M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
76', 2 - 0, Harrison O. ⚽,

Preview

Hednesford has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Stockton Town has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Stockton Town may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hednesford is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hednesford won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Hednesford won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of English NPL Premier Division for now

Stockton: 1.62%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Stockton	12	3	2	7	15:22	-7	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hednesford Town
English NPL Premier Division
25.04.26	Hednesford Town - Ashton United	3:3 ✺
18.04.26	Cleethorpes Town - Hednesford Town	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Hednesford Town - Morpeth Town	4:0 ✺
06.04.26	United of Manchester - Hednesford Town	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Hednesford Town - Prescot Cables	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWWW
- Stockton Town
English NPL Premier Division
25.04.26	Warrington Rylands - Stockton Town	1:2 ✺
21.04.26	United of Manchester - Stockton Town	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Stockton Town - Lancaster City	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Stockton Town - Rushall Olympic	2:4 ✺
06.04.26	Hebburn Town - Stockton Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
17.01.26	Stockton Town - Hednesford Town	1:2
28.10.25	Hednesford Town - Stockton Town	1:2

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