Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 13

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Guiseley		Ilkeston

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	2.92
	2.06	3.58	3.1
	5.47	3.91	1.57	Watch
	2.07	3.44	3.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.01)	3.58 ↑ (3.52)	2.67 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guiseley
34.3%

Draw
28%

Ilkeston
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

25.7%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

26.5%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guiseley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Guiseley's form might have worsened.

Ilkeston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilkeston's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guiseley than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guiseley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilkeston, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Guiseley - Ilkeston Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Kirby-Moore H. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
52', 0 - 2, Youmbi D. ⚽,
71', 0 - 3, Essien S. ⚽,
79', 0 - 4, Thornhill M. ⚽,
90+2', 1 - 4, Farrell L. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 9).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ilkeston may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Guiseley could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Guiseley won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Guiseley won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Guiseley - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 44.99%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guiseley
English NPL Premier Division
07.10.25	Guiseley - Warrington Rylands	0:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Bridlington Town - Guiseley	2:4 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
27.09.25	Lancaster City - Guiseley	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Guiseley - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
16.09.25	Stockton Town - Guiseley	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWTWL
- Ilkeston FC
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Evesham United - Ilkeston	0:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
27.09.25	Ilkeston - Workington	3:2 ✺
20.09.25	Leek Town - Ilkeston	1:2 ✺
16.09.25	Ilkeston - Cleethorpes Town	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
15.02.25	Guiseley - Ilkeston	1:1
19.10.24	Ilkeston - Guiseley	1:1
23.03.24	Guiseley - Ilkeston	1:2
28.11.23	Ilkeston - Guiseley	1:4

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