Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 12

Date: 14 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Turnbull Ground (Whitby)


	Whitby Town		Hednesford Town

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.05
	3.04	3.48	2.06
	3.01	3.4	2.12
	2.4	3.6	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.46)	3.47 ↓ (3.53)	2.16 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Whitby Town
31.7%

Draw
26.2%

Hednesford Town
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

25.5%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

25.7%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Whitby Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Hednesford Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Whitby Town than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Whitby Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Whitby Town - Hednesford Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Hednesford will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Hednesford (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Chimalilo D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
68', 2 - 0, Collins S. ⚽,
70', 2 - 1, Gibson M. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Whitby won 2.

Whitby is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hednesford's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hednesford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Whitby won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Whitby won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Whitby Town - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 36.58%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Whitby Town
English NPL Premier Division
11.10.25	Ashton United - Whitby Town	1:4 ✺
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Whitby Town - Hebburn Town	1:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
30.09.25	Whitby Town - Prescot Cables	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Whitby Town	4:1 ✺
16.09.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Whitby Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLTLL
- Hednesford Town
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Harborough Town - Hednesford Town	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
30.09.25	Billericay Town - Hednesford Town	2:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Hednesford Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Leek Town - Hednesford Town	0:2 ✺
09.09.25	Hednesford Town - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
08.12.18	Hednesford Town - Whitby Town	1:2
01.09.18	Whitby Town - Hednesford Town	1:2
27.01.18	Hednesford Town - Whitby Town	0:0
21.10.17	Whitby Town - Hednesford Town	2:2
22.04.17	Whitby Town - Hednesford Town	1:0
27.08.16	Hednesford Town - Whitby Town	1:1
13.04.13	Hednesford Town - Whitby Town	4:0

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