Match Info

Division 1 - Round 26

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion GKS Górnik Łęczna (Leczna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Górnik Łęczna		Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.35
	2.58	3.5	2.45	Watch
	2.74	3.66	2.43
	2.64	3.74	2.39	Watch
	2.63	3.3	2.3
	2.57	3.42	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.25)	3.5 ↑ (3.49)	2.38 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Łęczna
35.1%

Draw
26.2%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

26.4%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

27.1%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Łęczna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Górnik Łęczna's form might have worsened.

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Górnik Łęczna than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Górnik Łęczna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Górnik Łęczna - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Górnik Łęczna will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
53. Budzilek L. (G) 74. Kruk K. 29. Gucek L. 3. Holownia M. 17. Spacil B. 10. Deja A. (C) 8. Kryeziu E. 23. Ogaga D. 38. Myszor J. 71. Nowogonski K. 22. Orlik K.	1. Kieszek P. (G) 99. Noiszewski K. 16. Gajgier A. 6. Farbiszewski B. 11. Kargulewicz K. 21. Los K. (C) 77. Adkonis J. 17. Niewiadomski J. 4. Korczakowski I. 71. Szczepaniak M. 9. Gieroba S.
Substitutes
30. Akhmedov B. 88. Osipiuk O. 9. Paryzek P. 1. Pindroch B. (G) 37. Stepniak J. 14. Szabaciuk F. 11. Tkacz D. 99. Wilk K. (G) 7. Wolsztynski R.	23. Adamczyk H. 30. Barnowski D. 5. Dias M. 25. Glacel M. (G) 2. Glogowski K. 8. Gulczynski G. 10. Jaron D. 7. Jedrasik J. 13. Lis J.
Coaches
Shatalov Y.	Stokowiec P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Spacil B. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
57', Kargulewicz K. ↓, Barnowski D. ↑,
57', Niewiadomski J. ↓, Jedrasik J. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Spacil B. ⚽,
60', Gucek L. ↓, Szabaciuk F. ↑,
69', Ogaga D. 🟥,
71', Noiszewski K. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Adkonis J. ↓, Adamczyk H. ↑,
75', Korczakowski I. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
80', Szczepaniak M. ↓, Jaron D. ↑,
81', 2 - 0, Kruk K. ⚽,
87', 🟨,
87', Spacil B. ↓, Tkacz D. ↑,
90', 3 - 0, Orlik K. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Kryeziu E. 🟨,
90+4', Orlik K. ↓, Akhmedov B. ↑,
90+10', Budzilek L. 🟨,
90+11', 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Górnik Łęczna won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Leczna: 6.76%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Łęczna
Polish Division 1
14.03.26	Stal Rzeszów - Górnik Łęczna	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Górnik Łęczna - Wieczysta Kraków	0:3 ✺
27.02.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Górnik Łęczna	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Górnik Łęczna - GKS Tychy	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Górnik Łęczna - Stal Mielec	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLTWT
- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 1
14.03.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Polonia Warsaw	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Chrobry Głogów - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Polonia Bytom	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Znicz Pruszków - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Wisła Kraków	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
14.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Górnik Łęczna	3:3

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