Match Info

Division 1 - Round 6

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion GKS Górnik Łęczna (Leczna)

Referee: Karski L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Górnik Łęczna		Pogoń Siedlce

	1	X	2
	3	3.3	2.25	Watch
	2.3	3.25	2.8
	2.98	3.25	2.28	Watch
	3.09	3.46	2.29
	3.00	3.44	2.24	Watch
	2.3	3	2.9
	3.03	3.34	2.28
	2.15	3.5	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.29)	3.32 ↑ (3.13)	2.52 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Łęczna
34.4%

Draw
28.3%

Pogoń Siedlce
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

29.4%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

28.5%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Łęczna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Górnik Łęczna's form might have worsened.

Pogoń Siedlce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pogoń Siedlce's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Górnik Łęczna than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pogoń Siedlce, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	27.3%	27.3%

Górnik Łęczna - Pogoń Siedlce Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Górnik Łęczna will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Pogoń Siedlce will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Górnik Łęczna: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Górnik Łęczna (votes: 2 - 50%). Pogoń Siedlce (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Górnik Łęczna (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Górnik Łęczna (votes: 3 - 60%). Pogoń Siedlce (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pindroch B. (G) 21. Bednarczyk J. 6. David Abbott G. 88. Osipiuk O. 23. Ogaga D. 86. Rafa Santos 17. Spacil B. 11. Tkacz D. 8. Kryeziu E. (C) 73. Doba S. 18. Spiaczka B.	57. Lemanowicz J. (G) 14. Jakubik D. 3. Dembek B. 6. Flis M. 2. Mis K. 11. Famulak M. 10. Drag M. 31. Dzieciol E. 56. Demianiuk C. 13. Podlinski K. 7. Szuprytowski D. (C)
Substitutes
30. Akhmedov B. 99. Bojanczyk K. 5. Broda M. 10. Deja A. 15. Krawczyk S. 20. Malamis P. 12. Olszak D. (G) 22. Orlik K. 7. Traore S.	23. Danielewicz K. 19. Kozlowski O. 4. Misiak P. 9. Rybak A. 22. Saganowski F. 21. Stypulkowski S. 1. Tomkiel J. (G) 27. Zbrog J. 95. Zielonka N.
Coaches
Stolarczyk M.	Nocon A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Flis M. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 1 - 1, Doba S. ⚽,
53', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Zielonka N. ↑,
60', Ogaga D. 🟨,
72', Kryeziu E. ↓, Traore S. ↑,
72', Tkacz D. ↓, Deja A. ↑,
76', Jakubik D. 🟨,
81', Demianiuk C. ↓, Rybak A. ↑,
81', Spacil B. ↓, Orlik K. ↑,
87', Famulak M. ↓, Misiak P. ↑,
87', Misiak P. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Górnik Łęczna won 3.

Recent form of Górnik Łęczna has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Pogoń Siedlce's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Górnik Łęczna won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Górnik Łęczna won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.3:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Łęczna
Polish Division 1
17.08.25	GKS Tychy - Górnik Łęczna	2:2 ✺
09.08.25	Stal Mielec - Górnik Łęczna	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Górnik Łęczna - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:2 ✺
27.07.25	Ruch Chorzów - Górnik Łęczna	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Górnik Łęczna - Polonia Bytom	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TTTLL
- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 1
17.08.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Bytom	2:0 ✺
08.08.25	Ruch Chorzów - Pogoń Siedlce	0:2 ✺
03.08.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Odra Opole	0:1 ✺
27.07.25	Wieczysta Kraków - Pogoń Siedlce	2:1 ✺
20.07.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
02.05.25	Górnik Łęczna - Pogoń Siedlce	1:3
26.10.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Górnik Łęczna	1:1
Polish Cup
28.02.23	Pogoń Siedlce - Górnik Łęczna	0:1
Club Friendly
25.06.22	Górnik Łęczna - Pogoń Siedlce	3:2
23.01.21	Górnik Łęczna - Pogoń Siedlce	3:0
Polish Division 2
11.07.20	Górnik Łęczna - Pogoń Siedlce	2:3
20.10.19	Pogoń Siedlce - Górnik Łęczna	3:4

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