Match Info

1st Division - Relegation Group - Round 23

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Capelli Sport Stadion (Koge)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	HB Køge		Aarhus Fremad

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.75	1.96
	3.2	3.6	2.08	Watch
	3.29	3.85	2.16
	3.2	3.95	2.01	Watch
	3.1	3.4	1.95
	3.37	3.65	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↓ (3.9)	3.7 ↓ (3.77)	2.03 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HB Køge
28.8%

Draw
25.2%

Aarhus Fremad
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.6%

24.5%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

24.1%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HB Køge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HB Køge's performance.

Aarhus Fremad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aarhus Fremad might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HB Køge than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HB Køge that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarhus Fremad than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aarhus Fremad could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

HB Køge - Aarhus Fremad Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Køge will win (votes: 11 - 91.7%). Aarhus Fremad will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Køge: 76.1% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Sommergaard N. (G) 14. Sorensen V. 23. Westergren M. 22. Jakobsen M. 2. Bust L. 21. Jakobsen N. 7. Jensen M. (C) 27. Romer M. 28. Larsen G. 9. Thomsen T. 20. Gothler A.	1. Kiilerich K. (G) 19. Rolland B. 33. Callo L. 6. Grube F. 10. Kirchheiner M. (C) 27. Kirchheiner M. 42. Ryberg M. 3. Agnarsson M. 41. Riisgaard L. 9. Andersen K. 7. Kaastrup M.
Substitutes
35. Achton L. 17. Alkhoudari B. 1. Bayrak B. (G) 6. Brodersen R. 34. Choukri A. 16. Hald S. 11. Mudi 19. Semovski E.	18. Abdullahi Y. 21. de Claville Berthelsen M. 28. Egerton E. 20. Hjaltason O. 30. Hojbjerg V. (G) 16. Holvad A. 2. Kjolby M. 43. Munk F. 99. Ostergaard J. 4. Pisani A.
Coaches
Pedersen N.	Dahm Kjaergaard M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Sorensen V. 🟨,
45', Thomsen T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, Thomsen T. ⚽,
58', 2 - 0, Thomsen T. ⚽, Jakobsen N. (A),
66', Bust L. ↓, Brodersen R. ↑,
66', Rolland B. ↓, Pisani A. ↑,
66', Kaastrup M. ↓, Holvad A. ↑,
67', Ryberg M. ↓, Egerton E. ↑,
74', Holvad A. 🟨,
76', Riisgaard L. ↓, Abdullahi Y. ↑,
81', Thomsen T. ↓, Semovski E. ↑,
84', Andersen K. ↓, Hjaltason O. ↑,
87', Larsen G. ↓, Choukri A. ↑,
87', Gothler A. ↓, Mudi ↑,
87', Brodersen R. ↓, Hald S. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Aarhus Fremad could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Køge won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Køge won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of Danish 1 Division for now

Aarhus Fremad: 3.94% Koge: 1.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aarhus Fremad	9	3	4	2	10:9	1	13
11	Koge	9	1	4	4	11:17	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

HB Køge - the odds 3.9 are the expected chance of winning is 23.61%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Aarhus Fremad - the odds 1.77 are the expected chance of winning is 51.93%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HB Køge
Danish 1 Division
21.03.26	HB Køge - Lyngby BK	3:3 ✺
13.03.26	B.93 Copenhagen - HB Køge	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	HB Køge - Esbjerg	0:1 ✺
27.02.26	Hobro - HB Køge	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.02.26	HB Køge - Roskilde	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TLLT?
- Aarhus Fremad
Danish 1 Division
21.03.26	Hillerød - Aarhus Fremad	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Aarhus Fremad - Horsens	0:0 ✺
06.03.26	Aalborg BK - Aarhus Fremad	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Aarhus Fremad - Middelfart	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
20.02.26	Hobro - Aarhus Fremad	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division
23.11.25	Aarhus Fremad - HB Køge	2:2
25.07.25	HB Køge - Aarhus Fremad	2:1

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