Match Info

1st Division - Round 9

Date: 21 September 2026, Monday

Location: Capelli Sport Stadion (Koge)

Referee: Svedborg B. H. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	HB Køge		Hobro

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.30	2.82	Watch
	2.30	3.30	2.75
	2.38	3.45	2.80
	2.43	3.60	2.93
	2.59	3.46	2.57	Watch
	2.40	3.45	2.85
	2.38	3.31	2.88	Watch
	2.29	3.30	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.79)	3.4 ↓ (3.46)	2.8 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

HB Køge
39.1%

Draw
27.5%

Hobro
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

26.9%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

26.4%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HB Køge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HB Køge's performance.

Hobro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hobro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HB Køge than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HB Køge that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hobro than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hobro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	42.9%	28.6%

HB Køge - Hobro Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Køge will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Hobro will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Køge (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.55) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Køge (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Køge (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Hobro (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Køge (votes: 3 - 75%). Hobro (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sommergaard N. (G) 4. Hald S. 23. Westergren M. 22. Jakobsen M. 2. Bust L. 6. Brodersen R. 25. Isaki F. 28. Larsen G. 7. Jensen M. (C) 5. Culhaci G. 9. Thomsen T.	25. Dakir J. (G) 20. Noshe A. 18. Sogaard E. (C) 4. Dorph O. 5. Kannegaard M. 27. Klitten L. 26. Hansen T. 3. Enemark C. 8. Pedersen M. 11. Hauge R. 22. Huldahl M.
Substitutes
17. Achton L. 21. Jakobsen N. 10. Jensen Tue C. 16. Mols C. (G) 8. Romer M. 19. Semovski E. 14. Sorensen V. 27. Stolshoj N. 11. Warming M.	43. Breum A. 9. Christensen F. 78. Dahl H. 47. Flak P. 14. Hansen L. 12. Jacobsen M. 16. Meedom O. 29. Obasi O. 1. Sondergaard A. (G)
Coaches
Pedersen N.	Gjesing J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Bust L. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Thomsen T. ⚽, Isaki F. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Hansen T. ⚽, Enemark C. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 1)
48', 2 - 1, Culhaci G. ⚽, Larsen G. (A),
55', 3 - 1, Isaki F. ⚽, Culhaci G. (A),
62', Pedersen M. ↓, Christensen F. ↑,
63', 4 - 1, Isaki F. ⚽, Larsen G. (A),
64', Culhaci G. ↓, Semovski E. ↑,
65', 5 - 1, Isaki F. ⚽, Westergren M. (A),
69', 5 - 2, Christensen F. ⚽, Huldahl M. (A),
70', Hauge R. ↓, Meedom O. ↑,
70', Hansen T. ↓, Breum A. ↑,
74', Jensen M. ↓, Romer M. ↑,
74', Bust L. ↓, Sorensen V. ↑,
84', Hald S. ↓, Achton L. ↑,
84', Isaki F. ↓, Stolshoj N. ↑,
87', Huldahl M. ↓, Dahl H. ↑,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 12th in the 1st Division (Relegation Group: ) and 6th in the Promotion ~ 1st Division (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Køge won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Køge has recorded 5 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:28 (averaging 1.2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Køge against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 13:15 goals (averaging 1.3:1.5 per game).

Outrights of Danish 1 Division for now

Hobro: 2.02% Koge: 1.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Hobro	9	4	1	4	12:16	-4	13
11	Koge	9	1	4	4	11:17	-6	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HB Køge
Danish 1 Division
12.09.26	Esbjerg - HB Køge	2:2 ✺
04.09.26	HB Køge - Hillerød	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Aalborg BK - HB Køge	0:0 ✺
23.08.26	HB Køge - Kolding IF	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	HB Køge - Hvidovre	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TTTTL
- Hobro IK
Danish 1 Division
11.09.26	Hobro - Vejle Boldklub Kolding	0:0 ✺
04.09.26	Hobro - Hvidovre	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Hillerød - Hobro	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Hobro - Aalborg BK	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Esbjerg - Hobro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division
24.05.26	HB Køge - Hobro	0:1
22.04.26	Hobro - HB Køge	1:2
27.02.26	Hobro - HB Køge	1:1
18.07.25	HB Køge - Hobro	2:0
22.05.25	Hobro - HB Køge	2:1
21.04.25	HB Køge - Hobro	0:2
18.10.24	HB Køge - Hobro	4:1

Upcoming Matches