What is the expert prediction for HJK vs Motherwell?

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HJK vs Motherwell Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, August 06, 2026)

Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Bolt Arena (Helsinki)

Referee: Cerny D. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	HJK TV
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	HJK		Motherwell

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.50	3.10	Watch
	2.10	3.30	3.10
	2.06	3.55	3.25	Watch
	2.10	3.60	3.18
	2.25	3.57	2.94	Watch
	2.05	3.55	3.05
	2.08	3.64	3.38	Watch
	2.10	3.45	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.6)	3.52 ↑ (3.2)	3.15 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HJK
44.2%

Draw
26.4%

Motherwell
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

28.4%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HJK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HJK's performance.

Motherwell has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Motherwell might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	7.7%	30.8%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. HJK will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Motherwell will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for HJK: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Markovic M. (G) 28. Ylitolva M. 6. Tikkanen V. 3. Cissokho T. 14. Montano L. 8. Mentu P. 29. Haarala S. 4. Ring A. (C) 22. Moller L. 9. Borchers M. 18. Mero T.	1. Paulsen A. (G) 7. Sparrow T. (C) 3. Girdwood-Reich J. 5. Moormann M. 45. Longelo E. 12. Priestman O. 8. Fadinger L. 11. Lowry A. 77. Vogt W. 18. Maswanhise T. 17. Charles-Cook R.
Substitutes
7. Cicale A. 32. Gueye M. 12. Haapanen M. (G) 15. Kallinen J. 17. Kirilov M. 26. Lappalainen L. 24. Levealahti E. 10. Lingman L. 5. Nallo A. 1. Ost J. (G) 20. Pukki T. 13. Simojoki K.	27. Booth M. 4. Knight-Lebel J. 22. Koutroumbis J. 21. Matty Connelly (G) 29. McAllister Z. 31. McConnell J. (G) 24. Ross L. 25. Whyte O. 23. Wilson E.
Coaches
Rantanen J.	Johansson A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Lowry A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', Priestman O. 🟨,
56', Ylitolva M. 🟨,
58', Moller L. 🟨,
64', 0 - 1, Maswanhise T. (Penalty Awarded),
66', Vogt W. ↓, Booth M. ↑,
66', Fadinger L. ↓, Whyte O. ↑,
66', Ylitolva M. ↓, Simojoki K. ↑,
70', Borchers M. ↓, Pukki T. ↑,
70', Mentu P. ↓, Lingman L. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Pukki T. ⚽, Simojoki K. (A),
73', Lowry A. ↓, Knight-Lebel J. ↑,
80', Charles-Cook R. ↓, Koutroumbis J. ↑,
80', Longelo E. ↓, Ross L. ↑,
80', Mero T. ↓, Cicale A. ↑,
80', Haarala S. ↓, Lappalainen L. ↑,
81', Girdwood-Reich J. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

HJK is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Motherwell has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

HJK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

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Last Results with these Odds

Motherwell - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 36.65%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
03.08.26	SJK - HJK	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Coleraine - HJK	0:3 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
26.07.26	HJK - TPS	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	HJK - Coleraine	5:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.07.26	HJK - VPS Vaasa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWWW
- Motherwell FC
Scottish Premier League
02.08.26	Hibernian - Motherwell	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	HB Tórshavn - Motherwell	0:3 ✺
23.07.26	Motherwell - HB Tórshavn	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Motherwell - Genk	3:4 ✺
05.07.26	AGF Aarhus - Motherwell	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLL

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