Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 7 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Bolt Arena (Helsinki)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
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Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	Canal+ Live 13
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Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
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Sweden	Disney+
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Thailand	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+


	HJK		Olimpija Ljubljana

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.4	2
	3.6	3.2	1.95
	3.75	3.4	2
	4.08	3.4	2
	3.82	3.42	1.96	Watch
	3.5	3.4	1.91
	3.99	3.54	1.99
	3.75	3.4	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (2.8)	3.4 ↑ (3.15)	1.98 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HJK
24.7%

Draw
27.7%

Olimpija Ljubljana
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

29.1%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

28.5%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that HJK's form might have worsened.

Olimpija Ljubljana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Olimpija Ljubljana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HJK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpija Ljubljana than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Olimpija Ljubljana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	25%	65%

HJK - Olimpija Ljubljana Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. HJK will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Olimpija will win (votes: 13 - 65%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Olimpija: 44.1% – 85.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Nijhuis T. (G) 3. Antzoulas G. 4. Toivio J. (C) 5. O'Shaughnessy D. 28. Ylitolva M. 23. Kokcu O. 8. Kanellopoulos G. 30. Pallas N. 22. Moller L. 94. Erwin L. 7. Hostikka S.	69. Vidovsek M. (G) 8. Lasickas J. 21. Pedreno M. 14. Ratnik M. (C) 3. Sualehe D. 6. Agba P. 23. Pinto D. 18. Brest M. 24. Boultam R. 9. Kojic D. 19. Durdov I.
Substitutes
99. Albanese A. 17. Bande H. 24. Boamah M. 6. Halme A. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 10. Lingman L. 2. Lyons-Foster B. 42. Meriluoto K. 1. Ost J. (G) 80. Palumets K. 9. Plange L. 37. Tanaka A.	45. Acimovic M. 11. Blanco A. 34. Doffo A. 36. Fink G. (G) 10. Florucz R. 33. Govea J. 99. Marin A. 17. Muhamedbegovic A. 22. Pintol D. (G) 15. Ristic M. 2. Silva J. 88. Thalisson
Coaches
Korkeakunnas T.	Sanchez V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Brest M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Kojic D. ↓, Muhamedbegovic A. ↑,
51', Ylitolva M. 🟨,
57', 0 - 1, Brest M. ⚽, Lasickas J. (A),
63', Lasickas J. 🟨,
68', 0 - 2, Agba P. ⚽, Brest M. (A),
72', Ylitolva M. ↓, Bande H. ↑,
72', Hostikka S. ↓, Plange L. ↑,
72', Antzoulas G. ↓, Lyons-Foster B. ↑,
72', Kokcu O. ↓, Lingman L. ↑,
75', Pinto D. ↓, Thalisson ↑,
75', Brest M. ↓, Govea J. ↑,
79', Bande H. 🟨,
80', Boultam R. ↓, Blanco A. ↑,
84', Moller L. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
85', Lyons-Foster B. 🟨,
89', Toivio J. 🟨,
89', Durdov I. ↓, Ristic M. ↑,

Preview

HJK is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Olimpija is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

HJK could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Olimpija will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in HJK: Halme A. (Injury) Ost J. (Injury)

There will not play in Olimpija: Marin A. (Knee Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches HJK won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:7 (average 0.5:3.5).

Including matches at home between the teams HJK won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	HJK - Dinamo Minsk	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
19.10.24	KuPS Kuopio - HJK	1:0 ✺
06.10.24	HJK - Haka	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.10.24	Lugano - HJK	3:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
28.09.24	HJK - Ilves	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLLL
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana
Slovenian PrvaLiga
03.11.24	Celje - Olimpija Ljubljana	0:1 ✺
Slovenian Cup
30.10.24	Radomlje - Olimpija Ljubljana	1:2 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
27.10.24	Olimpija Ljubljana - Domžale	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	Olimpija Ljubljana - LASK Linz	2:0 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
19.10.24	Nafta - Olimpija Ljubljana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
16.08.18	HJK - Olimpija Ljubljana	1:4
09.08.18	Olimpija Ljubljana - HJK	3:0

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