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Hamburger SV - St. Pauli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 2
  • Date: 29 August 2025, Friday
  • Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
  • Referee: Dingert C. (Ger)
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    Hamburger SV St. Pauli
    Hamburger SV St. Pauli
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.29 ↑
    (2.26)    		 3.3 ↓
    (3.47)    		 2.83 ↓
    (3.17)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Hamburger SV
    31.6%    		Draw
    31.6%    		St. Pauli
    36.8%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    42.3% 27.5% 30.2%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    45.1% 29.3% 28.3%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hamburger SV's form might have worsened.
  • St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St. Pauli's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+13.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hamburger SV, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-8.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St. Pauli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    40.8% 32.7% 26.5%

    Hamburger SV - St. Pauli Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 18 - 38.3%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 13 - 27.7%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 34%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 24.4% – 52.2%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 6 - 28.6%). St. Pauli (votes: 8 - 38.1%). Tie (votes: 7 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH 0 - Hamburg (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.25 - St. Pauli (1.77) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • AH 0, 1st Half - St. Pauli (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 7 - 26.9%). St. Pauli (votes: 12 - 46.2%). Tie (votes: 7 - 26.9%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. PortugalHeuer Fernandes D. (G)
    17. ComorosOmari W.
      8. LibyaElfadli D.
    25. NigeriaTorunarigha J.
    16. GeorgiaGocholeishvili G.
    21. GermanyRemberg N.
    24. ArgentinaCapaldo N. (C)
    28. SwitzerlandMuheim M.
    29. KosovoSahiti E.
    11. GhanaKonigsdorffer R.
    38. NorwayRossing-Lelesiit A.
    		22. BosniaVasilj N. (G)
      5. GermanyWahl H.
      8. SwedenSmith E.
    25. PolandDzwigala A.
    11. PolandPyrka A.
      6. USASands J.
    16. JapanFujita J.
    23. GermanyOppie L.
    10. LuxembourgSinani D.
    27. BeninHountondji A.
    28. FrancePereira Lage M.
    Substitutes
      7. FranceDompe J.
    23. GermanyMeffert J.
      2. FranceMikelbrencis W.
    26. IsraelPeretz D. (G)
    14. FrancePhilippe R.
    15. DenmarkPoulsen Y.
    22. FranceSoumahoro A.
    49. GermanyStange O.
    44. CroatiaVuskovic L.
    		17. EnglandAfolayan O.
    20. SwedenAhlstrand E.
    19. NetherlandsKaars M.
    24. AustraliaMetcalfe C.
    21. GermanyRitzka L.
    34. AustriaRobatsch J.
      2. GreeceSaliakas M.
    44. JapanSchmidt N.
      1. GermanyVoll B. A. (G)
    Coaches
         GermanyPolzin M.
    		     GermanyBlessin A.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 1)
    • 7', Dzwigala A. 🟨,
    • 19', 0 - 1, Dzwigala A. ⚽, Pereira Lage M. (A),
    • 26', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
    • 37', Sinani D. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
    • 54', Pyrka A. 🟨,
    • 56', Sahiti E. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
    • 56', Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
    • 59', Pyrka A. ↓, Saliakas M. ↑,
    • 60', 0 - 2, Hountondji A. ⚽, Fujita J. (A),
    • 64', Poulsen Y. 🟨,
    • 69', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
    • 75', Elfadli D. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
    • 75', Capaldo N. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
    • 77', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
    • 82', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
    • 82', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
    • 82', Dzwigala A. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,

    Preview

  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 3.
  • Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
  • St. Pauli is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
  • Recently, Hamburg has had a series of away games.
  • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
  • There will not play in St. Pauli: Ceesay A. (Foot Injury) Irvine J. (Foot Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Muscle Injury)
  • There are questionable in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Jatta B. (Thigh Injury)
  • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.4:1.6).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Hamburger SV
    German Bundesliga
    24.08.25 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Hamburger SV 0:0 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    16.08.25 Pirmasens - Hamburger SV 1:2 ET ✺
    Club Friendly
    09.08.25 Mallorca - Hamburger SV 2:0 ✺
    26.07.25 Hamburger SV - Lyon 0:4 ✺
    19.07.25 Sturm Graz - Hamburger SV 2:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6
    TWLLL
    - FC St. Pauli
    German Bundesliga
    23.08.25 St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund 3:3 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    16.08.25 Eintracht Norderstedt - St. Pauli 0:1 penalties ✺
    Club Friendly
    09.08.25 St. Pauli - Verona 1:0 ✺
    02.08.25 Coventry City - St. Pauli 2:2 ✺
    26.07.25 St. Pauli - Nice 2:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4
    TWWTW
    Latest Head to Head
    German 2 Bundesliga
    03.05.24 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 1:0
    01.12.23 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 2:2
    21.04.23 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 4:3
    14.10.22 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 3:0
    21.01.22 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 2:1
    13.08.21 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 3:2
    01.03.21 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 1:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Hamburger SV
    German Bundesliga
    10.10.26 Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV ✺
    - FC St. Pauli
    German 2 Bundesliga
    11.10.26 St. Pauli - Karlsruher ✺

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